Rugby
2011-10-08 - England vs France
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Quarter Finals
Saturday, 8th October 2011 - Kickoff 20:30 (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: England 4th, France 8th
England have an impressive World Cup record against the French, winning three of their four matches - but these two teams are bitter cross-Channel rivals.
This quarter final should be a good game. Despite being four for four, England are playing a wounded, but dangerous, French team who have a habit of throwing caution to the wind in these circumstances.
England
England's Rugby World Cup 2011 Pool Results:
10/09 Argentina 9 - 13 England
18/09 England 41 - 10 Georgia
24/09 England 67 - 3 Romania
01/10 England 16 - 12 Scotland
Team and Tactics
England won 4 pool games with "hard grind" and gave up just one try in the competition, the lowest of any team. More of the same should do the job for them against France.
But, then again England faced a group that was tailor-made for an armchair ride - all opponents were forward based and unlikely to throw the ball around - and there was no way that they could compete up front against England.
And yet England almost managed to lose - twice - against both Argentina and Scotland. So far it's been a series of mediocre performances in this world cup for England.
England need to stamp their authority on this game early and out psyche the French. It will be key for the England team to take the play to the French rather than stand around and see what the French deliver up, and then play countering tactics.
Starting England Rugby Team Lineup :
Matt Stevens 1, Steve Thompson 2, Dan Cole 3, Louis Deacon 4, Tom Palmer 5, Tom Croft 6, Lewis Moody 7, Nick Easter 8, Ben Youngs 9, Jonny Wilkinson 10, Mark Cueto 11, Toby Flood 12, Manu Tuilagi 13, Chris Ashton 14, Ben Foden 15
Replacements :
Dylan Hartley 16, Alex Corbisiero 17, Courtney Lawes 18, Simon Shaw 19, James Haskell 20, Richard Wigglesworth 21, Matt Banahan 22
Les Bleus
France's Rugby World Cup 2011 Pool Results:
10/09 France 47 - 21 Japan
18/09 France 46 - 19 Canada
24/09 New Zealand 37 - 17 France
01/10 France 14 - 19 Tonga
Team and Tactics
With reports of ongoing "internal strife, feuds and in-house ructions" throughout the World Cup, and even more so after the loss to Tonga, France seems to have had a less than ideal lead in to this game against England.
France started with sizable 25-27 point wins over Japan and Canada (which seem less impressive on reflection when New Zealand beat both sides by 60-70 points) ... and then the wheels fell off.
France were never at the races against New Zealand after conceding 3 tries in the first 20 minutes, but the capitulation against Tonga was embarrasing - but it might have lit a fire?
Les Bleus tend to have players that rely on a lot of emotion to fire themselves up enough play great rugby. You could argue - and I will - that facing England might just be the spark that France needs.
I would not underestimate the team motivation for the Quarter Finals. If the big players can step up - such as veteran forwards Imanol Harinordoquy and Nicolas MasBut - England will have something to worry about.
Starting France Team Lineup :1 Jean-Baptiste Poux, 2 William Servat, 3 Nicolas Mas, 4 Pascal Pape, 5 Lionel Nallet, 6 Thierry Dusautoir, 7 Julien Bonnaire, 8 Imanol Harinordoquy, 9 Dimitri Yachvili, 10 Morgan Parra, 11 Alexis Palisson, 12 Maxime Mermoz, 13 Aurélien Rougerie, 14 Vincent Clerc, 15 Maxime Médard
Replacements :16 Dimitri Szarzewski, 17 Fabien Barcella, 18 Julien Pierre, 19 Louis Picamoles, 20 Francois Trinh-Duc, 21 David Marty, 22 Cédric Heymans
Other Variables
Referee: Steve Walsh (AUS)
The Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
The Weather: Fine. Southwest breezes. No excuses for poor ball handling or wayward high ball.
The Verdict
To progress, France know they must beat an opponent that's knocked them out of three World Cups, in 1991, 2003 and 2007.
I think this will be a close game. Successful kicking has been a decisive factor in the two most recent meetings between England and France in the Six Nations which were split 1-1, with France winning 12-10 in Paris and England winning 17-9 at Twickenham.
In the RWC to date, England's kicking record is not as good as that of the French.
England: Wilkinson has a success ratio of just 45 per cent and has missed nine of his 14 penalty attempts. Flood has fared better with a penalty and nine conversions to his name.
France: Parra has landed nine of his 10 kicks so far in the tournament while Yachvili has a kicking ratio of 81 per cent and has landed all seven penalties that he has lined up. Francois Trinh-Duc (on the bench) also has a good track record if needed.
For so long England have relied on the trusty boot to get winning results - but I just have a gut feeling that this time that the boot is not so trusty - and an upset result is in the making.
The Pick :
England 15-16 France
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I will take France to win - and this time we should take it at English bookermaker Bet365 who are obviously fielding a lot of patriotic bets on England.Again England might justify being slight favourites - but these prices have swung far too much.
