Rugby
2011-10-15 - Wales vs France
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Semi Final 1
Saturday, 15th October 2011 - Kickoff 21:00 (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: Wales 4th, France 5th
Saturday's semi-final against Wales will be the 91st time the teams have met. Their first match was in 1908, and history shows little between the teams over the decades.
France have won 43 times, Wales 44, with three draws and only two points in total between them: 1,307 to France, 1,305 to Wales.
Wales - The Boyos
Wales Rugby World Cup 2011 Results :
11/09 South Africa 17 - 16 Wales
18/09 Wales 17 - 10 Samoa
26/09 Wales 81 - 7 Namibia
02/10 Wales 66 - 0 Fiji
08/10 Ireland 10 - 22 Wales
The Welsh have been consistent on and off the field in this RWC 2011 tournament and of the four teams heading into the semi-finals, statistically Wales have the strongest defence. In five matches, Wales has surrendered 44 points, while France has given up the most, 108.
Having won four consecutive RWC 2011 matches, Wales have also had their best winning run for three years.
However, those statistics need to be tempered with the fact that opponents Namibia and Fiji are not really of a comparable standard and when it's all boiled down to basics - Wales owe their semi-final place to some immense defence against Ireland.
Wales Team and Tactics
More than a third of Wales' squad is aged 23 or under. This youth and inexperience compared to the French will, in theory, bring resilience, fitness and a "no hangups" view on historical results.
But - will the young lads be able to handle the pressure of this semi final - or will a lack of experience tell if Wales fall behind by a couple of scores?
Ireland dominated the Welsh side during the opening half of the quarter-final, but refused to take the kicks at goal, and were unable to convert their territorial pressure into tries.
Starting Wales Rugby Team Lineup:
Gethin Jenkins 1, Huw Bennett 2, Adam Jones 3, Luke Charteris 4, Alun Wyn Jones 5, Danny Lydiate 6, Sam Warburton 7, Toby Faletau 8, Mike Phillips 9, James Hook 10, Shane Williams 11, Jamie Roberts 12, Jonathan Davies 13, George North 14, Leigh Halfpenny 15
Reserves:
Lloyd Burns 16, Paul James 17, Bradley Davies 18, Ryan Jones 19, Lloyd Williams 20, Stephen Jones 21, Scott Williams 22
Key Changes:Rhys Priestland is out, Hook is in (with Stephen Jones on the bench).
France - Les Bleus
France Rugby World Cup 2011 Results :
10/09 France 47 - 21 Japan
18/09 France 46 - 19 Canada
24/09 New Zealand 37 - 17 France
01/10 France 14 - 19 Tonga
08/10 England 12 - 19 France
Having been in an apparent state of disarray after losing to Tonga in the pool stages, France produced off their best performance of the Rugby World Cup to beat England 19-12 last weekend.
France have reached (and lost) the semi-finals in the last two World Cups, both times being beaten at the hands of England, and so Les Bleus are no doubt feeling fired up and ready to win a semi.
France Team and Tactics
Coach Marc Lievremont has named an unchanged team from the one that sent England home. The France team boasts plenty of experience - many of the French team are survivors from the last two Rugby World Cup tournaments.
Dimitri Yachvili, while in the starting lineup, may not be able to kick due to a lingering thigh injury with Morgan Parra positioned to perform this crucial role.
Starting France Team Lineup :
1 Jean-Baptiste Poux, 2 William Servat, 3 Nicolas Mas, 4 Pascal Pape, 5 Lionel Nallet, 6 Thierry Dusautoir, 7 Julien Bonnaire, 8 Imanol Harinordoquy, 9 Dimitri Yachvili, 10 Morgan Parra, 11 Alexis Palisson, 12 Maxime Mermoz, 13 Aurélien Rougerie, 14 Vincent Clerc, 15 Maxime Médard
Reserves:
16 Dimitri Szarzewski, 17 Fabien Barcella, 18 Julien Pierre, 19 Louis Picamoles, 20 Francois Trinh-Duc, 21 David Marty, 22 Cédric Heymans
Other Variables
Referee: Alain Rolland (IRE)
The Venue:Eden Park, Auckland
The Weather:Passing showers with moderate westerly winds are expected. This should highlight any handling errors.
Head to Head
24-Feb 2007 France 32-21 Wales at the Stade De France
26-Aug 2007 Wales 7-34 France at the Millennium Stadium
15-Mar 2008 Wales 29-12 France at the Millennium Stadium
27-Feb 2009 France 21-16 Wales at the Stade De France
26-Feb 2010 Wales 20-26 France at the Millennium Stadium
19-Mar 2011 France 28-9 Wales at the Stade De France
France have a decided edge in recent head to head clashes with five wins in the last six games including a comfortable 28-9 victory in this seasons Six Nations match played in Paris.
Wales beaten France just once in their last seven meetings, when Warren Gatland’s men won the Grand Slam in 2008.
The Verdict
Wales have been the talk of the UK media this week - and the hype is building in the valleys - but for all the heroic talk this is still rarified air for the Welsh side.
Last week the UK press were "certain" that Ireland were destined for greatness on the strength of the earlier 15-6 win over Australia - now this week the press hacks are certain that Wales will win ..
I disagree.
France are bigger, stronger, and far more experienced, and if they can avoid the "Tonga Syndrome" then the physical games against New Zealand and England will have better prepared the French team.
Recent head to head history shows me that France should be favourites here - and I'll take the Blues to win at good prices well over 2.00
The Pick :
Wales 10 - 18 France
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take FRANCE to win
