Rugby
2011-10-21 - Wales vs Australia
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : 3rd/4th Playoff
Friday 21 October 2011 - 20:30 (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: Wales 6th, Australia 2nd
The "Bronze" final is often considered a throw-away game with little really to play for.
At this RWC, however, both contenders have a point to prove and both teams have spoken about their desire to end their RWC 2011 campaigns playing open, attacking rugby - and I think that they have at least selected players capable of doing so.
Wales
In what most of the UK perceived as a great injustice, and what was later simply understood to be the ref playing by the IRB imposed rules, the Welsh were forced to play most of their semi-final against France with 14 men.
The Welsh players responded magnificently, and Wales "almost" won anyway - but were a kick away from completing the job.
Unfortunately for Wales that "almost" has been a trait for the last couple of years when playing against the five major sides - England- France - Australia - South Africa - New Zealand.
In the last two years Wales have played 16 rugby internationals against these top five countries, and won just ONCE, a 19-9 win over England in a warm-up game in Cardiff in August 2011.
Wales 2011 Rugby World Cup Results :
11/09 Wales 16 - 17 South Africa
18/09 Wales 17 - 10 Samoa
26/09 Wales 81 - 7 Namibia
02/10 Wales 66 - 0 Fiji
08/10 Wales 22 - 10 Ireland
15/10 Wales 8 - 9 France
Team and Tactics
Injuries aside, Warren Gatland seems to have named his strongest possible team for this match.
The experienced Welsh front row, who have a combined 158 caps, are likely to rate themselves against what looks on the surface like an inexperienced Wallaby pack.
I suspect that Wales will still have a lingering feeling of being 'hard done by' and that it's likely to add to their motivation to deprive the Aussies of a win. But will that be enough ?
Starting Wales Lineup:
Gethin Jenkins 1, Huw Bennett 2, Paul James 3, Bradley Davies 4, Luke Charteris 5, Danny Lydiate 6, Toby Faletau 7, Ryan Jones 8, Mike Phillips 9, James Hook 10, Shane Williams 11, Jamie Roberts 12, Jonathan Davies 13, George North 14, Leigh Halfpenny 15
Replacements:
Lloyd Burns 16, Ryan Bevington 17, Alun Wyn Jones 18, Andy Powell 19, Lloyd Williams 20, Stephen Jones 21, Scott Williams 22
Key Team Issues: Prop Gethin Jenkins has been named captain for this game replacing Sam Warburton who was sent off (and suspended) for THAT tackle.
Australia
The Wallabies have never really got into their stride during this RWC. They are a very capable side, but just have not fired. It's almost as if Australia had bought into the South Africa / England approach of safety first football when faced with a tight match.
The Australian 6-15 loss to Ireland in the group stages was a sign that the Wallabies do not have the pack to play a totally forward oriented game. The Aussies made too many mistakes, refused to take the kicks when on offer, and almost seemed to beleive that tries would come as a right.
Australia are likely to be still feeling the physical and mental bruising from their 20-6 semi-final loss to the All Blacks last Sunday.
The men from Oz talked the talk, but failed to walk the walk - so will that bruise their self-confidence? Not for long I suspect - as Australian sportsmen seem to be full of ..... (fill in your own noun here)
;-)
Australia 2011 Rugby World Cup 2011 Results :
11/09 Australia 32 - 6 Italy
17/09 Australia 6 - 15 Ireland
23/09 Australia 67 - 5 USA
01/10 Australia 68 - 22 Russia
09/10 Australia 11 - 9 South Africa
16/10 Australia 6 - 20 New Zealand
Team and Tactics
If the Wallaby scrum can hold its own against Wales, the Australian backline should be the major difference between the two teams.
The Wallabies are carrying injuries, but have also made a lot of changes to their team for this game. Fresh blood. Robbie Deans has chosen to use forwards who've mainly been in the reserves in the big matches. From the side that lost to the All Blacks on Sunday night, there are six new faces among the forwards, and two new backs.
The return of full back Kurtley Beale along with playmaker Berrick Barnes at inside centre in support of the at times less-than-sparkling Quade Cooper, should result in some good running rugby.
Starting Wallabies Lineup:
1 James Slipper, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 3 Salesi Ma'afu, 4 James Horwill, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 6 Scott Higginbotham, 7 David Pocock, 8 Ben McCalman, 9 Will Genia, 10 Quade Cooper, 11 Digby Ioane, 12 Berrick Barnes, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 James O'Connor, 15 Kurtley Beale
Replacements:
16 Saia Faingaa, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Radike Samo, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Anthony Faingaa, 22 Robert Horne
Head to Head
These sides have played each other SEVEN times in the last five years, and Australia have a significant edge with 5 wins, 1 defeat and a 29-29 draw back in 2006.
04-Nov-2006 Wales 29-29 Australia
26-May-2007 Australia 29-23 Wales
02-Jun-2007 Australia 31-0 Wales
15-Sep-2007 Wales 20-32 Australia
29-Nov-2008 Wales 21-18 Australia
28-Nov-2009 Wales 12-33 Australia
06-Nov-2010 Wales 16-25 Australia
Other Variables
Referee: Wayne Barnes (ENG)
The Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
The Weather: Fine with moderate southwest winds. No excuses.
The Verdict
I don't think that the attitude of either side will be a problem for this match - and I expect both teams to go out and play to win - perhaps with a bit more freedom than they have so far.
A check on the head-to-head results shows that Australia usually have the better of the match, typically winning by a margin of 10-15 points - even when playing in Cardiff at the Millineum Stadium.
The Wallabies have a point to prove - that they are worthy of the IRB #2 ranking - and if the Australian forwards can match up against the Welsh then I expect the Aussie backs have enough pace to score tries - several of them.
Yes - Wales have improved in the last 12 months since the last clash - but so have the Australians who did win the Tri-Nations - and I have a feeling that supremacy between the two countries still remains in the Southern Hemisphere.
So I expect Australia to win against a Welsh side who still have some way to go to break into the top three of World Rugby.
The Pick :
Wales 18-28 Australia
