Rugby
2011-10-23 - New Zealand vs France
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Final
Sunday, 23 October 2011 - Kickoff 21:00 (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: New Zealand 1st, France 3rd
The bookies have France as considerable underdogs, in fact Irish bookmaker Paddy Power in a PR frenzy, has already paid out punters on an All Black win three daysw before the final is actually played.
I see the French as wounded, but perhaps not as dangerous as they'd like to be perceived. The history between the two teams is a consideration, as is the legendary ability of Les Blues to have 'one game in them' - but that may have been the game against Wales...
The All Blacks
New Zealand are unquestionably the best team in the tournament - most tries, most points, and the only unbeaten record.
But that sort of statement - best team overall - has been true for much of the last 24 years if you take in complete season records, and yet the All Blacks have found that winning 3 knockout matches in a row is a very tricky task to master.
Have New Zealand finally found a team that can do it? Probably - helped in no small part by home advantage.
New Zealand's 2011 Rugby World Cup Results:
09/09 New Zealand 41 - 10 Tonga
16/09 New Zealand 83 - 7 Japan
24/09 New Zealand 37 - 17 France
02/10 New Zealand 79 - 15 Canada
09/10 New Zealand 33 - 10 Argentina
16/10 New Zealand 20 - 6 Australia
Team and Tactics
Just how good the New Zealand loose trio have been is demonstrated by this stat heading into the final : of the 196 tackles they have made in this tournament, just 10 have missed the target.
Some of the media descriptions of 'brute force, withering technique and unstoppable will' are a bit flowery for me, but basically these guys are quality and the New Zealand game plan is likely to be 'more of the same'.
In fact I suspect that they may not even have peaked in form yet as a team during the tournament and as such could see an powerful display of rugby in the Final.
There are no changes to the starting 15 which dominated Australia 20-6 in last Sunday's semifinal. There is one change to the bench: Otago and Highlanders loose forward Adam Thomson returns replacing Hurricanes flanker Victor Vito.
Starting New Zealand Lineup:
1 Tony Woodcock, 2 Keven Mealamu, 3 Owen Franks, 4 Brad Thorn, 5 Sam Whitelock, 6 Jerome Kaino, 7 Richie McCaw, 8 Kieran Read, 9 Piri Weepu, 10 Aaron Cruden, 11 Richard Kahui, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 13 Conrad Smith, 14 Cory Jane, 15 Israel Dagg
Replacements:
16 Andrew Hore, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Ali Williams, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Andy Ellis, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Sonny Bill Williams
Les Bleus
France struggled through the group phase, losing to both the All Blacks and Tonga(!), and would not have made the knockout stages at all if Tonga had not slipped up against Canada.
If you skim through recent French rugby media coverage it's all about their team 'under-performing' to date in the RWC and their ability to 'go on to improbable victories'. Add in some 'testy relationships' and 'frosty rapport with the media' it all sounds very romantic.
But this is rugby reality time guys.
France's Rugby World Cup 2011 Results:
10/09 France 47 - 21 Japan
18/09 France 46 - 19 Canada
24/09 France 17 - 37 New Zealand
01/10 France 14 - 19 Tonga
08/10 France 19 - 12 England
15/10 France 9 - 8 Wales
Team and Tactics
The French know they are the underdogs and that they will need a perfect match to claim the Webb Ellis Cup.
France are confident that they can destabilise the All Blacks, but are likely to have to be extremely defensive (even more so than they were against Wales) to stop the All Black attack.
Starting France Lineup:
Jean-Baptiste Poux 1, William Servat 2, Nicolas Mas 3, Pascal Pape 4, Lionel Nallet 5, Thierry Dusautoir 6, Julien Bonnaire 7, Imanol Harinordoquy 8, Dimitri Yachvili 9, Morgan Parra 10, Alexis Palisson 11, Maxime Mermoz 12, Aurélien Rougerie 13, Vincent Clerc 14, Maxime Médard 15
Replacements: Not named yet (8.19am Fri)
Players to watch:
The boot of 22 year old fly half Morgan Parra, especially when paired with in-form scrum half Dimitri Yachvili. Vincent Clerc is top try scorer for France - but has never scored against the All Blacks.
Head To Head
These two sides have faced each other 51 times, with New Zealand winning 38 games, France 12 and 1 game (in 2002) being drawn 20-20.
H-2-H Matches in the Last Four years
06-Oct-2007 France 20-18 New Zealand in Cardiff (RWC)
13-Jun-2009 New Zealand 22-27 France in Dunedin
20-Jun-2009 New Zealand 14-10 France in Wellington
28-Nov-2009 France 12-39 New Zealand in Marseille
24-Sep-2011 New Zealand 37-17 France in Auckland (RWC)
France famously upset New Zealand in that World Cup quarter-final in Cardiff in 2007, but the reality at that time was the two sides were well matched as was shown 18 months later when France won again in New Zealand.
Since then, New Zealand have won three times against France, including a superb 27 point victory in Marseille.
Other Variables
Referee: Craig Joubert (RSA)
The Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
The Fans: A sea of black (most Les Bleus supporters did not expect France to make the final and have left NZ)
The Weather: Fine. A southwest breeze, Easy on both players and fans in Auckland for a big night out.
The Verdict
France often do pull one superb performance out of the bag at a World Cup – the 1999 semi-final and the 2007 quarter final both against New Zealand are cases in point – and so the hosts are going to have to play well to win.
France do have talent and even some degree of positional parity with the All Blacks, but France - in my view - have not played a full 80 minute game yet this RWC.
The odds on France are far too high, and if you are punting on the long-term view then over the course of 20-30 matches I'd expect France to win between 20-25% of the time.
But realistically, in this situation France are unlikely to do the job against an in-form New Zealand team who are aiming to win their 1st RWC since 1987.
I think that New Zealand will lift the Webb Ellis Cup, I see New Zealand repeating the 1987 final result - perhaps 29-9 winners again?
The Pick :
New Zealand 29-9 France
