Rugby
2012-02-25 - England vs Wales
A Sports Betting Pick by Paddy
Rugby : Six Nations 2012
Saturday 25th February 2012, 16:00 (local)
The match of the Six Nations so far takes place this Saturday. England welcome Wales to Twickenham and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The winner gets to go on and challenge for a Grand Slam while the loser will have to lick their wounds and restore national pride in the next match.
Wales are the favourites to win at Twickenham for the first time since 1988 and there are plenty of parallels between the matches 24 years ago and this Saturday. An England team rebuilding, a talented Welsh side and genuine expectation from the visiting fans.
So, who will prevail?
England
Stuart Lancaster has got off to a solid start as England coach, guiding his team to narrow wins against Scotland and Italy – both away from home. While England may have been finding their feet with a number of debutants, this will be their first real test of Lancaster’s new look side.
Having kept faith with the same XV that beat Scotland on their trip to Rome, Lancaster will make changes this weekend. He said: “There will be one or two changes from the Italy game and we certainly think our bench will be an important factor going into the second half.”
Leicester centre Manu Tuilagi has recovered from a hamstring injury and will feature after Lancaster admitted ‘I think he’ll be playing some part’. Tigers team-mate Toby Flood is also in line for a recall having kicked four penalties in his club side’s 20-19 win over Saracens on Sunday.
Scrum-half Lee Dickson and number eight Ben Morgan could also start after impressing from the replacements’ bench in Italy.
Wales
Wales are the favourites at Twickenham for the first time in 24 years
Before 2008, it has been twenty years since Wales had beaten England at Twickenham. The 26-19 win that day banished the hoodoo and, as Robert Kitson writes in the Guardian, ‘this will be the first time the dragonhood have headed east up the M4 with a sense of genuine expectation.’
Wales travel to London with the Triple Crown in their sights and coach Warren Gatland is not concerned by the expectation on his team’s shoulders. He said: “If we go there with our heads right and get some quality ball, we have got a good chance. “We are not afraid of going to Twickenham now, we are excited about it. There is no fear factor now and the challenge for us is going there as favourites.”
Wales expect to have a number of injured players available for Saturday’s match, including captain Sam Warburton, George North and lock Alun Wyn Jones, but the hooker Huw Bennett is out. Gatland has called hooker Richard Hibbard into their squad to replace Bennett.
Head to Head
23 Mar 2002 England 50-10 Wales at Twickenham
20 Mar 2004 England 31-21 Wales at Twickenham
04 Feb 2006 England 47-13 Wales at Twickenham
04 Aug 2007 England 62-05 Wales at Twickenham
02 Feb 2008 England 19-26 Wales at Twickenham
06 Feb 2010 England 30-17 Wales at Twickenham
06 Aug 2011 England 23-19 Wales at Twickenham
So England have face Wales eight times at Twickenham over the last 10 years - and have won seven of the games - six of them by a margin of 10+ points!
Verdict
Wales may well be the favourites heading into this game but it’s worth taking into account their disappointing recent record against England.
Walkes have won only 5 of the 17 meetings between the sides since the turn of the century, have won only once at Twickenham since 1988 and England’s HQ remains the least fruitful venue for Wales since the Six Nations started in 2000.
If both teams play to their potential it’s hard not to see Wales winning this one, especially with England still rebuilding after their disappointing World Cup showing.
However, the hosts have shown some promise so far in the tournament and with home advantage and taking into account Wales’ mediocre record at Twickenham, England could be worth backing at 10/11 with a three point start.
The Pick :
Back England with a 3 point
