Rugby
2023-10-20 - New Zealand vs Argentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby World Cup : France
Saturday 21st October 2023 - KO 0600 AEST
New Zealand
New Zealand are in to another semi-final in the world cup thanks to a thrilling victory over Ireland in the Quarter final 28-24. Both teams scored 3 tries but it was NZ who held out a fired up Irish team late on with incredible defence to lock in yet another Semi-final.
Despite the win and the quality defence for the majority of the match, the NZ side did let in 2 reasonably soft tries in the first half, this will be a work on leading into this knockout match with Argentina.
NZ did lose to France in the opening match of this world cup but have since relished in the fact they have been portrayed in the media as having no chance to claim the title.
The All Blacks are way out in front in terms of betting; however I doubt the NZ will be taking this match up lightly with a world cup final the ultimate prize.
Argentina
Argentina have been a revelation in the 2023 world cup tournament and stunned their more favoured opposition in Wales in the Quarters to make the Semis. After losing to England in pool play 27-10,
Argentina have gone unbeaten since, claiming the scalps of Japan, Chile and Samoa through pool play and of course Wales 29-17 last weekend. The match was a lot closer than the scoreline suggests, Wales scoring first under the posts and by the 20 minute mark lead 10-0.
Wales then led by 4 at the HT break. After the Pumas took the lead thanks to a couple of penalties the Welsh again scored a 7 pointer, taking back the lead once more. 4 minutes to go Argentina were leading by 2, Wales had a scrum on half way and Argentina intercepted a poor pass to race away and seal the victory.
Odds
New Zealand lead the betting odds and are heavily favoured, $1.05 to $11.00, the line is 18.5 points and combined points 47.5
The Betting Verdict
New Zealand will start as heavy favourites in this one having a dominant record over their opposition, losing just twice in their history to Argentina from 36 matches, with one of those a draw.
The 2 losses for NZ were in the past 3 years, the first in 2020, in Australia 15-25 and the most recent in New Zealand 2022, 18-25. The most recent meetings were in the rugby championship, NZ winning 53-3 and in Argentina, 12-41.
As with the All Blacks, Argentina have only lost the one match enroute to this Semi Final, that was their pool Match against England were a poor start cost them any hope despite a redcard to England.
This is the third time Argentina have made a world cup semi-final having done so previously in 2007 and 2015 and would be the first time making a final if they can produce the upset here.
Both national teams will be desperate to make the world cup final in what is a high stakes affair. Once again the big match is being played at Stade de France, a venue the All Blacks are becoming accustomed to during this tournament.
There is some rain forecast for the match but at this stage it is too early to make a call if this will effect the conditions – Argentina may appreciate the rain more than the All blacks given their strong forward pack.
World cup semis and finals tend to be close affairs and if the forecast rain does show up I believe the match may well stay fairly close. The bookies line is set at 18.5 and I see this as about right for how well NZ is playing at present.
The logical call here is to say Argentina will keep it within the 18.5 points but this still feels like a flip of the coin. The most recent matches have had combined points 56 and 53 which is only just over the 47.5 suggested total. Defence will be of high priority here, so best bet for me is going under this threshold returning $1.90
Anytime try scorer option – Ardie Savea $3.75
The Pick :
New Zealand 26-10 Argentina
