Tennis
2019-01-24 - Karolina Pliskova vs Naomi Osaka
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: Australian Open Semi Final
Thursday 24th January 2018 - Scheduled 3:30pm
British Time: 4:30am
Preview
You do have to wonder how Karolina Pliskova is going to recover emotionally from not only beating Serena Williams in the Quarter Final, but the manner in which she saved match points and came from 5-1 down in the final set decider to win the match 7-5.
Usually Pliskova is a pretty stoic character, but you could see how much the win meant to her as she continues her unbeaten start to 2019. Now she has to avoid the pitfalls of the last seven women who have beaten Serena Williams before the Final of a Grand Slam tournament.
Only two of those seven women have gone to win their match in the next Round, but that means five of them have been beaten including Karolina Pliskova who lost in the US Open Final in 2016 after beating Serena Williams in the Semi Final. Emotionally it is the biggest achievement in women's tennis despite the American not being in the top 10 of the World Rankings and many players have struggled to back up a win of such importance particularly with so much usually on the line at the Grand Slam level.
Managing her emotions is going to be the key for Pliskova, but even if she can do that she does have a big test in front of her when facing Naomi Osaka who is looking to reach back to back Grand Slam Finals.
I did a quick search through the records and I believe Naomi Osaka would become the first female player to win her maiden Grand Slam title and reach the Final of the next Grand Slam since Jennifer Capriati back in 2001. In the last few years we have seen a number of first time winners struggle to cope with the new pressures on them, but the young Japanese star seems to take everything in her stride and is making her way towards World Number 1 status.
Naomi Osaka destroyed Elina Svitolina in her Quarter Final and she has been playing very well here and I do think she will be the steadier player between the ears in this one. I do like how Karolina Pliskova can compose herself on the court and she has also been producing at a high rate, but it is hard to ignore how big a win it was for her over Serena Williams and knowing how difficult players have found backing up that success over the 23 time Grand Slam Champion.
Both players beat the other on the hard courts in 2018, but they were two tight matches. Even though Pliskova was able to beat Osaka without facing a break point in their last match in Tokyo, I do think the latter has the slightly superior return game while their serves are just as strong as each other.
In a match like this the slight emotional fatigue and the slightly better return game may give Naomi Osaka the edge and the chance to play for another Grand Slam title.
Prediction
Lay the games with the favourite.
The Pick :
Karolina Pliskova 1-2 Naomi Osaka
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games at 2.00 with BetFred
