Tennis
2021-04-22 - John Millman vs Taro Daniel
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : ATP Belgrade Second Round
Thursday 22nd April 2021 - Scheduled 12pm
11am (British Time)
Preview
Neither of these two players has had a lot of success on the clay courts, but it is a good opportunity to earn a Quarter Final spot and put some vital World Ranking points in the bag. Both John Millman and Taro Daniel are likely to be very happy with the draw after solid First Round wins.
Both victories came in straight sets for these two players, but John Millman made arguably lighter work with his opponent than Taro Daniel. However, the latter is a Lucky Loser so Daniel will feel pretty comfortable in the conditions and also that he has nothing to lose having been beaten once already in Belgrade.
Even then it is hard to make much of a case for Taro Daniel who has long struggled on the clay courts and who has lost all three matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2021. Taro Daniel has struggled to protect his serve in those three defeats and that has put pressure on his return game, one that Daniel has not been able to handle as the Japanese player has been beaten pretty routinely.
He has held just 71% of service games played on the hard courts in 2021, but that number dips to 54% when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked opponents.
John Millman may not be one of the elite clay courters in the world, but he is a top 100 Ranked player and I think the Australian will also lean on his past successes against Taro Daniel to give him some confidence. The veteran is a fairly steady player overall and John Millman has similar numbers as Taro Daniel both behind serve and return, although four of his five clay court matches have come against top 100 Ranked opponents compared with three of ten for Taro Daniel.
That has to be factored into the numbers, while Millman has a 3-1 lead over Daniel in the head to head. None of those matches have been on the clay courts, but John Millman has had a significant edge in the returning numbers and has created more break points than Taro Daniel in all four matches.
I expect that to be the case again in this Second Round match and I do think John Millman can get past Taro Daniel. His lack of feeling for the clay courts may make this closer than some of their previous matches have been, but I think John Millman should have the majority of chances and in general has been the better clay courter of the two and I expect that to show up by the time it is all said and done.
Prediction
Lay the games with the narrow favourite.
The Pick :
John Millman 2-1 Taro Daniel
