Tennis
2022-09-09 - Karen Khachanov vs Casper Ruud
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: US Open Semi Final
Friday 9th September 2022 - Scheduled 3pm
8pm British Time
Preview
The first of the Men's Semi Final matches at the US Open brings together two players that may not have expected to be in such a position after underwhelming summer performances on the hard courts. Both Karen Khachanov and Casper Ruud have not hit the heights they would have wanted, although the former is the more surprising Semi Finalist having slipped out of the top 30 in the World Rankings.
Karen Khachanov has taken advantage of a couple of bits of luck- his draw could not have been much kinder with the top Seeds falling all around him, while the momentum looked to have swung away from the Russian in his Third Round win over Jack Draper before an injury meant the youngster had to retire mid-match.
The back to back five set wins over Pablo Carreno Busta and Nick Kyrgios have to be respected, but they have been competitive matches and you do wonder how much has been invested physically and emotionally to make it through to the Semi Final. Karen Khachanov has been very reliant on the serve in his run in New York City and he is going to need that part of his tennis to be working at full capacity if he is going to reach a maiden Grand Slam Final.
His opponent is younger, but Casper Ruud has the experience of winning a Grand Slam Semi Final having done that at the French Open in June. There is every chance that Ruud can win end this tournament as the new World Number 1, but he will need to win this match and hope Carlos Alcaraz is eliminated in the other Semi Final in order to confirm that spot.
It does bring a different pressure onto the court, but I think Casper Ruud will benefit from this being a Grand Slam and the ultimate prize of picking a first title at this level will overshadow any thoughts turning to the World Number 1 Ranking. They are linked together and so Casper Ruud can continue building on what has been a strong US Open performance and his overall solid numbers on the hard courts in 2022.
The win over Matteo Berrettini will really give Casper Ruud confidence, especially the manner in which that all came together and I do think the Norwegian player is the right favourite in this Semi Final.
Casper Ruud is still serving very efficiently and he has dropped serve the same number of times as Karen Khachanov in this tournament. However, the real difference between the two may come on the return and that is where it feels like Casper Ruud has an edge and he has created quite a few more break points than his opponent throughout this event.
Add in the overall numbers which have seen Casper Ruud break in 23% of return games compared with Karen Khachanov's 19% mark and I do think the edge is with the higher Ranked player right there. A more convincing Quarter Final win will help the confidence and Casper Ruud has just been a little more consistent with the return at the US Open.
You can never write off a serve as big as Karen Khachanov can be at his best, and he has been at his best for much of this tournament, but I do think there is more of a vulnerability about his tennis.
In their sole previous match, Casper Ruud dominated the break point count, albeit on a clay court which is the favoured surface of the World Number 7. This match should be closer, but I do think Casper Ruud will have the tennis on the return to win this one and likely in three or four sets.
Prediction
Lay the sets with the higher Ranked player.
The Pick :
Karen Khachanov 1-3 Casper Ruud
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets at -105 with BetOnline
