Tennis
2022-09-11 - Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: US Open Men's Final
Sunday 11th September 2022 - Scheduled 4pm
9pm British Time
Preview
The first Grand Slam that is won can spark the career of a player and the feeling in tennis circles is that Carlos Alcaraz could really begin to motor as soon as he wins his first title. Take nothing away from a much improved Casper Ruud though, who has experienced a Grand Slam Final at the French Open back in June, and it is fitting for Men's tennis that the World Number 1 Ranking is on the line on Sunday.
The winner will not only be the US Open Champion, but will be that World Number 1 and that would be a massive achievement regardless of who earns the victory.
Having back to back to back five setters is far from ideal preparation for Carlos Alcaraz, but at 19 years old and with a day of rest between the Semi Final and the Final, I do think he can recover. His Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero will know how tough it can be to be competitive having won the second Semi Final at the US Open having been beaten by Andy Roddick in straight sets in 2003, but some things have changed.
Back then the Semi Finals were played on Saturday and the Final on Sunday so there was very little recovery time. It began a sequence where the second Semi Final winner really struggled to compete in the US Open Final and so the change was made to offer a day of rest and I do think a teenager should be able to cope with that.
Of course having three five setters in a row that have finished at a very awkward time is anything but ideal and the big question is whether Carlos Alcaraz will eventually be impacted by all of the tennis he has been playing. It is a huge physical investment, but arguably an even bigger emotional investment to win matches in the way the Spaniard has and it is a factor of concern for him.
He is also facing a confident Casper Ruud who has made a much more serene progression through the US Open draw and has dropped as single set at a time where his opponent was battling through matches. The four set win over Karen Khachanov will have given Ruud plenty of confidence and he has been looking as comfortable on the hard courts as we have ever seen.
Casper Ruud has to know that his level will still have to be picked up, and he will be under pressure to serve well, but I do think the Norwegian has the tennis to try and test the fitness of his younger opponent. Getting involved in long rallies won't worry someone who has reached the Final at the French Open and Ruud will test Carlos Alcaraz' fitness more than most.
However, the quality and potential in Carlos Alcaraz is higher than Casper Ruud's, in my opinion, and the Spaniard clearly enjoys the conditions in New York City. He is already very much loved by the crowd and I expect him to be pushed forward by the supporters, while Carlos Alcaraz has a strong head to head against Casper Ruud.
They have met twice, but Carlos Alcaraz has dominated those matches and that includes beating him at the Miami Masters Final earlier this season. It was a more competitive match than the one on the clay courts of Marbella in 2021, but Carlos Alcaraz was much stronger behind serve in Miami.
He forced Casper Ruud to only win 57% of points behind serve and hold just 53% of his service games that day. While Carlos Alcaraz has a decent serve, that return game is the key for him in the Final and I do think he can find a way to win this one in three or four sets, assuming the young Spaniard doesn't suddenly hit the wall when it comes to his fitness.
Casper Ruud is playing at a high level and he will feel if he can force a decider that he may have the edge, but holding Carlos Alcaraz from the door will be very difficult. It feels this is a big moment for Men's tennis with the Big Three at the back end of their careers and I think Carlos Alcaraz announces himself with the first Grand Slam of what will be many in his career.
Prediction
Lay the sets with the younger, hugely talented player.
The Pick :
Casper Ruud 1-3 Carlos Alcaraz
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Sets at -115 with BetOnline
