Tennis
2025-08-27 - Mattia Bellucci vs Carlos Alcaraz
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: US Open Second Round
Wednesday 27th August 2025 - Scheduled 7pm
12am (British Time)
Preview
The new buzzcut sported by Carlos Alcaraz was talk of the New York City crowd on Day 2 of the US Open, but the Spaniard made sure his tennis did plenty of talking too.
Beating Reilly Opelka may not have been unsurprising, but the performance was very good from the Cincinnati Champion and Carlos Alcaraz is looking for a much better run here than last year.
He faces a different kind of challenge in the Second Round compared with the monster serving that Reilly Opelka will bring to the court and this may actually be a more comfortable match up for Carlos Alcaraz.
Mattia Bellucci is the World Number 65 and the lefty has won a title on the hard courts this summer, albeit at the Challenger level. The Italian reached a career best World Ranking mark last month and an upset on Wednesday will see him move past that, although Mattia Bellucci is going to have to find another level if he is going to beat the World Number 2.
He did not make the main draw at the Australian Open earlier this year and early losses at Masters tournaments, including in Toronto and Cincinnati, makes it tough to believe Mattia Bellucci is going to be capable of pushing Carlos Alcaraz too hard. Mattia Bellucci is just 3-6 in hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents, while the service numbers have dipped worryingly in those matches.
Winning less than 58% of points played behind serve is not going to do Mattia Bellucci many favours against someone like Carlos Alcaraz, and especially not when you consider how much the Italian has struggled on the returning side of his tennis against the very best on the Tour.
Carlos Alcaraz can sometimes be guilty of losing focus in early Rounds, even at Grand Slam level, and he drops more sets at this stage of a Major than you would imagine. Even in the win over Opelka, there were times when sloppiness crept into the Alcaraz game as he tried to keep the crowd engaged and that makes covering lines like this a bit more challenging than it should be.
However, it is hard to believe Mattia Bellucci can push Carlos Alcaraz for long enough to prevent the World Number 2 from putting a run of games together. One competitive set would not be a massive surprise, but Alcaraz is capable of blitzing through another and that may be enough to set him up for a cover of this line.
Prediction
Lay the games with the World Number 2 in the first of the Night Session matches scheduled for Arthur Ashe Stadium on Day 4 at the tournament.
The Pick :
Mattia Bellucci 0-3 Carlos Alcaraz
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games at 1.66 with Bet365
