Tennis
2025-09-03 - Jannik Sinner vs Lorenzo Musetti
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: US Open Quarter Final
Wednesday 3rd September 2025 - Scheduled 9pm
2am (British Time)
Preview
The level that Jannik Sinner has been producing on the hard courts over the last season and a half on the Tour makes questions about him pretty easy... Can the opponent win enough games to give the World Number 1 something to think about, especially against the spread that has been set in these Grand Slam tournaments?
Jannik Sinner himself is barely being pushed and the numbers are quite frankly ridiculous.
Beating Alexander Bublik in the fashion he did in the Fourth Round had his opponent laughing at the end of the match and it is going to take a monumental effort to stop Jannik Sinner from defending the title he won here last year.
The challenge goes to his compatriot in the Quarter Final when Lorenzo Musetti steps onto the court and the latter has had Grand Slam successes in the past that will give him the confidence to compete. He has not enjoyed the best of hard court preparation results, but Lorenzo Musetti has looked pretty comfortable in New York City and he has won the last eleven sets played and completed.
Last year, Lorenzo Musetti beat Alexander Zverev on the hard courts of Vienna, but he is just 3-11 when going up against top 10 Ranked players on this surface. That includes a defeat to Novak Djokovic in Miami earlier this year when winning just four games and Lorenzo Musetti will know more than most about the development and improvement in the Jannik Sinner game.
The problem for Lorenzo Musetti when going up against the very best players on the Tour on the hard courts is that he has not been able to get enough out of his serve. If he struggles on that front again, Jannik Sinner is going to dominate the direction of this Quarter Final and it makes it very difficult to see how the World Number 1 is going to be stopped.
A bigger question is the spread, but you have to feel that Sinner is going to find a set with a couple of breaks of serve in his favour and that could be enough to see him surpass the number where it currently stands.
In the two previous matches between the players on the Tour, Jannik Sinner has held 100% of his service games which is compared with Musetti's mark of 61%.
That will need to be closed dramatically for this Quarter Final to be much more competitive and that seems unlikely right now.
Prediction
Lay the games with the World Number 1 against his compatriot.
The Pick :
Jannik Sinner 3-0 Lorenzo Musetti
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games at 1.83 with SportBet.One
