Tennis
2025-09-03 - Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: US Open Quarter Final
Wednesday 3rd September 2025 - Scheduled 7pm
12am (British Time)
Preview
For the first time since January 2021 and the first time since returning to the Tour, Naomi Osaka has reached the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam tournament.
She has 'only' managed to do that four times in her career... However, it is the conversion rate that stands out with Naomi Osaka winning the title each time she has reached the last eight in a Grand Slam with two of those successes being here in New York City and the other two at the Australian Open.
There is no doubt that Naomi Osaka is very comfortable on the hard courts and reaching the Final in Montreal in the build up to the US Open has clearly given her a lot of confidence. The performances in the tournament have backed that up and the crushing victory over Coco Gauff in the Fourth Round will just have reminded Naomi Osaka of her capabilities both on this court and in general.
She will certainly respect her next opponent.
Twelve months ago, Karolina Muchova beat Naomi Osaka in the Second Round at the US Open and she was clearly the better player. Things did change when they met in Melbourne earlier this year as Naomi Osaka rallied and was comfortably the stronger player in a three set win in the Second Round at the Australian Open, but Osaka will appreciate the threat posed by the opponent on the other side of the net.
Karolina Muchova has shown her character by winning every match at the US Open in three sets and she has shown she can deal with crowd support being against her having overcome Venus Williams.
There hadn't been much form shown in the preparation tournaments for the US Open and Karolina Muchova's overall hard court numbers this year have been pretty average. The World Number 13 was just 4-7 against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts prior to the US Open, although Muchova does have a couple of wins over that level of opponent within this run.
She will need to step things up if Naomi Osaka continues to play at her current level, but you cannot completely dismiss Karolina Muchova.
It is that respect that gives pause for thought, and this is a player that is rarely beaten easily.
However, Naomi Osaka will take plenty of confidence out of handling Muchova at the Australian Open and has proven to be a player that can be very tough to stop when she has picked up momentum within a tournament.
Karolina Muchova has to play her game with all the spins and slices to try and disrupt Naomi Osaka, but if the latter is serving at the level she has produced in this tournament, she should have too much for the higher Ranked player.
Prediction
Lay the games with the lower Ranked player, but the four time former Grand Slam Champion who is favoured in this Quarter Final.
The Pick :
Karolina Muchova 0-2 Naomi Osaka
