Tennis
2025-09-04 - Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: US Open Semi Final
Thursday 4th September 2025 - Scheduled 7pm
12am (British Time)
Preview
Twelve months ago, Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula was the US Open Final and they meet again in New York City, albeit a Round earlier than in 2024.
Out of the two players, Jessica Pegula has been more impressive in her run to the Semi Final, but this has been a tough match up for in recent meetings against the World Number 1 and that is hard to ignore.
The Final was a tight, competitive battle ending 7-5, 7-5, but Aryna Sabalenka was a more comfortable winner in the Miami Final earlier this year. She dominated the number of Break Points created in that latter Final and the top Seed is very comfortable in New York City, even if the fans are likely to be firmly behind the American player.
Jessica Pegula has been serving very well in her run to the Semi Final and that is going to be important for her in this match.
She has to try and keep the pressure on Aryna Sabalenka and not be forced into a position where the World Number 4 has to attack what is a big serve.
The expectation is that Jessica Pegula will have some returning success considering the slightly underwhelming performances we have seen from Aryna Sabalenka in this tournament. Having a walkover in the Quarter Final may mean Sabalenka needs a bit more time to just settle down, and the feeling is that the first set is going to be another tight, competitive battle and four of the last five sets played between these two players have all ended 7-5.
However, it should be noted that Aryna Sabalenka has won all of those sets and she can do the same here, while then taking a similar route to the title win in Miami to cover this big mark.
Prediction
Lay the games with the World Number 1 in this big Semi Final at the US Open.
The Pick :
Aryna Sabalenka 2-0 Jessica Pegula
