Tennis
2026-09-11 - Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : US Open Tennis Semi Final
Friday 11th September 2026 - Scheduled 7pm EST
12am (British Time)
Preview
It is going to be an emotional day in New York City as the entire world will remember the events of 9/11 twenty-five years after the terrorist attacks in the United States.
This City was impacted more than any other and New Yorkers will be remembering those who were lost.
The US Open has two Men's Semi Final matches scheduled to take place on Friday and it is fitting that two popular American players are facing one another in the bid to reach a maiden Grand Slam Final. Fans will come out to support Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe and the two players will be very glad that they have had an extra day of recovery between the Quarter Final and the Semi Final Rounds.
Both Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe came through Quarter Final matches in five sets- the former won a final set tie-breaker against defending Champion Carlos Alcaraz, while Frances Tiafoe came from two sets behind to beat Alex Michelsen.
Frances Tiafoe reached the Cincinnati Masters Final prior to the US Open, and he has always enjoyed playing at this tournament where his most consistent Grand Slam results have been achieved. The belief is clearly in a healthy place as Tiafoe has come through a couple of matches in five sets, while that belief is only enhanced with the amount of big points the World Number 12 has continued to win.
He may also feel he is playing with 'house money' after being a game away from a straights set loss in the Quarter Final before Alex Michelsen blinked and failed to stem the tide of momentum moving against him.
Recovering from that kind of position against Ben Shelton would be a lot more difficult for Frances Tiafoe, although Shelton has to show he can back up what feels like the biggest Grand Slam win of his career. Being able to bounce back from dropping the fourth set in the manner he did and still beating Carlos Alcaraz is as impressive a result as Ben Shelton could have produced and he is serving at a really high level.
Ben Shelton will be the first to admit that his game is based around being dominant on that shot, but he looks to have improved on the return of serve and that will be the key to winning multiple Grand Slams.
He has forced plenty of breaks of serve throughout this run at the US Open and Ben Shelton is the Montreal Champion and experienced enough to have competed in a couple of Grand Slam Semi Finals before. That experience can be a real help for someone looking to back up a big win, although Frances Tiafoe can call upon plenty of that having played in two previous Semi Final matches in New York City.
This is the third time Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe are facing each other at the US Open- the first in 2023 was won by Shelton in a big upset, but Frances Tiafoe was the lower Ranked player when beating Ben Shelton in five sets in 2024.
The most recent match saw Ben Shelton beat Frances Tiafoe in straight sets in Washington in 2025, and it does feel like the World Number 9 has improved on this surface this season.
Both will know the key here is to serve well, but Ben Shelton looks to have the edge in that department and he looks the more likely winner. Dismissing Frances Tiafoe's chances would be a mistake and he has had time to recover from the Quarter Final exploits, but Ben Shelton feels like the stronger player right now and he can earn revenge for the Third Round defeat to his compatriot here two years ago.
Prediction
Look for the higher Ranked American player to come through in three or four sets in this big Semi Final.
The Pick :
Frances Tiafoe 1-3 Ben Shelton
