Tennis
2026-09-12 - Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : US Open Tennis Final
Saturday 12th September 2026 - Scheduled 4pm EST
9pm (British Time)
Preview
The US Open Final is a repeat of the Australian Open Final which was won by Elena Rybakina in three sets.
She will be taking over as the World Number 1 regardless of how this Final plays out, but Elena Rybakina would love to secure a second Grand Slam in 2026 to underline that new position. Fighting back to beat Coco Gauff in the Semi Final will have given Elena Rybakina a confidence boost having dropped the first set in each of her last two wins at the tournament, but she would like to avoid that against the two time defending US Open Champion.
Aryna Sabalenka has not had a bad year on the Tour, but she has set high standards and has clearly not met them.
The top Seed at the US Open has not had a great summer and the lack of success at the last two Grand Slam events would have dented the belief, although Aryna Sabalenka clearly enjoys playing in New York City. She put in a very solid performance to beat Jessica Pegula in the Semi Final and spending fifty minutes less on the court than Elena Rybakina could still be important.
Both players are going to want to work behind the serve- if that aspect of the tennis is not quite at the top level, the rest of the tennis can fall away and that is something that both Sabalenka and Rybakina will be aware of avoiding. Serving well just helps settle any nerves by offering up a few more cheaper points and it is very important to get plenty of first serves into play to avoid offering the other an opportunity to get on the front foot immediately.
You have to expect to see plenty of winners, although the layers are perhaps right to give Aryna Sabalenka the narrow edge seeing as her serve has been in slightly better nick than Elena Rybakina's as the tournament has been winding down. That is not to say Rybakina is serving poorly, but those fine margins may be in favour of the two time defending Champion, who is also very aware of how to win big matches on this court.
It also could be a factor that Aryna Sabalenka has won the last two hard court matches against Elena Rybakina at Indian Wells and Miami since the Australian Open Final defeat. Those wins have just turned the momentum of the head to head after Elena Rybakina had won seven of nine hard court matches between the pair and Sabalenka has to take real confidence from those back to back wins.
Again, that may be the slight edge the current World Number 1 needs to beat the opponent who will be taking over that spot in the Rankings on Monday morning.
However, it would be a surprise if Elena Rybakina cannot push this match and she is a player that looks a big price to win the title here for the first time.
She does not look the type of player who will be thinking about those consecutive defeats to this opponent, but instead Elena Rybakina will just do what she does best and that is serve big and hit big and see where that takes her. The success in the Australian Open Final will also be a big reminder of what she can do against Aryna Sabalenka and this could develop into another scrap between the two best players on the Tour.
A deciding set has been needed in two of the three hard court matches between these players in 2026 and this US Open Final may be yet another that goes the distance.
Prediction
Look for the two players to push this Final above the total games line set.
The Pick :
Aryna Sabalenka 1-2 Elena Rybakina
