AFL Aussie Rules
2011-05-20 - Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Date: 20-05-2011
Venue: MCG, Melbourne
This clash will be interesting because the Blues have given the cats a hard time over the last 2-3 seasons. With the game at Etihad I think it could be close and will not be touching the handicap for the Cats.
Carlton Blues
The Blues are coming off a bye and will be rested while the Cats had a tough one against the Pies.
In the defence the names of Thornton and Jamison will be expected to do a lot particularly against a forward line that is so unpredictable. The threats of Johnson and Podsiadly are probably the two biggest and I cannot see both of them being stopped in fine conditions under the roof.
The midfield battle will be the highlight of the night because you have 2 of the 3 best midfields going head to head. Carlton are led by Judd who is a monster and is in career best form for the Blues this year. When I say career best, I mean look it because it is an ominous sign. Murphy, Gibbs and Simpson do a fair bit through the middle and it will be their strength called into question against a bulkier Cats midfield.
Up forward Jarrad Waite has been the man of the hour down at Carlton. He is starting to fulfil some of hype and is providing a serious option as a leading forward. Eddie Betts is a top line small forward and he will continue to pester his way around the forward 50 and probably come up with 2-3 goals. The Blues can and will score points but I am not sure how well they will contain the Cats.
Geelong Cats
The Cats are the only side who remain undefeated in 2011 and their win last week showed they still have as much fight as they have ever had. The simple fact with Geelong is they don’t lose close games. They always find a way to win and the stats over the last 3-4 season will prove they have won many more by 10 or under points than they have lost.
In defence Scarlett will be called upon to have another big night sweeping up the mess. Lonergan and Taylor will take the key forwards and I think between them they can restrict their opponents to 5 or fewer goals, and that would be a win. Milburn and Mackie will be there to transfer the ball from defence to attack and with good decisions I think they can punish the Blues on the counter.
In the centre Long may miss due to a shoulder injury but there is still a myriad of talent with Varcoe really stepping up this year to fill the void left by Ablett. Bartel and Selwood were huge again last Friday and James Kelly has been massive in the last 18 months, he has really asserted himself onto games.
In the forward line the Cats can and will score from as many as 10 different options. With the likes of Stokes, Podsiadly, Johnson, Duncan and Chapman hovering around their inside 50 I think the Cats will easily post 100 points. With the other threats coming through the midfield I think the Cats will edge the Blues out in a very offensive game.
The Verdict
I won’t go against the Cats in a close one
The Pick :
Geelong Cats 111- Carlton Blues101
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Geelong to win at 1.47 at Centrebet
