Time: 13:10 AEST
Date: 19-06-2011
Venue: MCG, Melbourne

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This game will be very interesting from a neutral’s perspective. I feel the Dees will make it a solid contest because it is at home, but the Dockers do appear to be the real deal this year and I think they are slowly getting better at playing in Melbourne, especially against weaker opposition.

Melbourne Demons

The Dees weren’t really expected to win over the Pies but probably could have given a better account of themselves. It is important that the Demons start putting a string of wins together to get them into the 8 if they have any finals ambitions, because another 2 losses in the next 3 games will spell the end of the season.

Bartram, Frawley and Garland are starting to really come along as young defenders and this is exemplified by Frawley’s selection in the All-Australian side last season. Their job will be tough this week against the Dockers but I feel they might be able to keep this very tight and maybe even edge a win.

Through the middle Moloney is experiencing a rejuvenation after an incident earlier in the year. Scully and Trengove need to continue to show why they were high draft picks as does Sylvia who was a high pick a few years back now. He has matured into a very good player but I think he can take the next step to be a true Demon star. The next year or two will decide whether he can do it or not.

In the forward line Tapscott and Watts lead a pretty young line up. Green leads the way and he is still their most reliable option and often pops up with a day of 4-5 goals. I am not sure how they will go scoring against a pretty competent Freo defence.

Fremantle Dockers

The Dockers were doing it easy against the Bombers at the weekend and had a little scare early in the 4th when the Dons kicked 4 straight, but they steadied to run out convincing 34 point winners. They travel to Melbourne looking for a win against the odds, that will keep them firmly entrenched in the 8.

In defence the reliability that is there from the likes of Grover,
McPharlin and Hayden mean that there is scope for some of their younger guys to have a trial and error attempt at playing defenders without too much damage. Over the last 18 months the Docker coach has found out plenty about their defence and I would rank them at about 6-7 overall at the moment, even it worsens slightly on their travels.

Through the guts you have Duffield and Palmer offering steady contributions as well as Mundy, Pavlich and van Berlo. They are becoming a midfield who you need to really stand up and take notice of late and with the best ruckman in the league, Aaron Sandilands, giving them first ball out of the middle through his sheer dominance, they will be right in this one as the odds suggest.

Up forward with Ballantyne, Mayne and now Mzungu playing at the top of their games it appears pretty hard to quell the potent Dockers. Bradley can go forward and kick a few as can Pavlich and even Hill. They tend to find scoring a bit tougher on the road but they will definitely score enough to make this a tight game.

The Verdict

The Demons in the match of the round to win by about a goal.

The Pick :

Melbourne Demons 95- Fremantle Dockers 91

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

90%

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Fremantle Dockers +24.5 points at 1.36 at Centrebet