Preliminary Final 1
Friday 21st Sept @ 5.50pm (GMT +8)

Season Results

Geelong (1st) 18 wins, 4 losses
Collingwood (6th) 13 wins, 9 losses

Last 5 Results

Round 15, 2007 Geelong 80 def Collingwood 64 @ MCG
Round 8, 2006 Collingwood 146 def Geelong 44 @ MCG
Round 11, 2005 Collingwood 121 def Geelong 96 @ Telstra Dome
Round 15, 2004 Geelong 94 def Collingwood 65 @ Telstra Dome
Round 18, 2003 Collingwood 97 def Geelong 73 @ Telstra Dome

Collingwood 4 wins, Geelong 1 win.

The Teams

Geelong broke a record on Monday evening that is actually quite outstanding - the most players to make an All Australian team in a single year.

Out of the 22 players selected from the 16 clubs around the country 9 Geelong players made the squad, though that rests on the selection panels perception of their year, it is still staggering to consider that 40% of best AFL footballers play within the one club.

One of those will not be playing, in the very important Center Half Back Matthew Egan who injured a foot a few weeks back, but this loss has seemingly had no effect on the Geelong side who have scored over 300 points in their last 2 games.

After Geelong's last second loss against Port Adelaide in round 21, and in evidence in their following two matches (away at Brisbane) and in the first finals match against the Kangaroos, Geelong's year long drive motivation gathered its second wind.

A highly motivated side, that has a endless depth of talent that play 'total football' in every position in the ground rarely comes along and considering in the last 19 games they have played, the only blemish is a 5 point loss.... I feel they will have no problems playing with everything they have for seemingly only 250 more minutes or so.

Collingwood are playing inspired football at the moment with most of their squad playing above and beyond their general estimated talent.

The Magpies they came from 22 points behind against West Coast last week which was entirely due to in my opinion a tactical error by West Coast coach John Worsfold, - 5 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter leading by 22 points and you take off your All Australian ruckman and fullback at the same time?

The Fullback had at the time, restricted A.Rocca to 0 goals up until that point..... in the 5 minutes they were off, Rocca scored 2 goals and Cloke another reducing the margin to 4 points within 5 minutes!)

But indeed Collingwood were playing with a fire in their bellies and from that point on they never looked like losing even when the match went into extra time.

They achieved this without their number 1 ruckman, Josh Fraiser who was a late omission but returns for this match and should be pleased with the efforts of their younger brigade who shined under pressure, kicking some of the most vital goals in the game.

Collingwood can take confidence in their recent 4-1 record against the Cats but in reality the Geelong sides in those years are worlds apart from this 2007 side.

The death of Collingwood great Len Thompson midweek should help this side play to the very end but I fear the overall spread of talent is no match for that of Geelong's who have rarely slipped up all season.

Analysis

- Geelong average 60 more handballs a game than Collingwood which indicates greater work around the packs and in greater numbers, being patient with the right exit strategy.

- Collingwood average 10 more kicks a game, but marks per game are equal which suggests Collingwood opt to kick it quickly from contested situations without truly observing up the ground contests. On the reverse of that, it says that Geelong's disposal with the boot is far more effective than Collingwood's.

- Collingwood's recent good form has also coincided with their increased tackle count, pointing to a higher intensity, unfortunately their new found tackle average is still only 2 more than Geelong's!

- Collingwood average more disposals per goal could suggest more turnovers around their half forward line with reluctance to kick long into their forward 50.

- Geelong has 16 players averaging over 0.5 goals per game against Collingwoods 12 players, suggesting more options and avenues for goal no matter what defensive structure is adopted.

The Verdict

I have explored many avenues in this game, statistically, emotionally, historically perhaps in search of even the slightest argument that I could put forward that this game is perhaps a 50/50 contest.

In reality nothing indicates this, in fact nothing even comes close to suggesting that so although the price for Geelong is 1.26, it just makes all rational sense that Geelong will win this.

Stranger things have happened and upsets occur every day in sports, but to quote Chuck Norris in 'Delta Force' ... "Not today @sshole"

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Geelong at 1.26 if you are brave enough to stake it big enough to be worth your while.