Barcelona v Real Madrid
Football: Spain, Primera Division
Saturday, 13th December 2008 - Kickoff 21:00

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Barcelona (1st - Home : 5-2-0 26:5)

Barcelona lead the Primera Liga by six points from Villarreal, having won 11 of their past 12 league matches.

Barcelona Team News :
Andres Iniesta will train before the game and could make a return to the side following more than a month on the sidelines.

So Gabi Milito will be the only Barcelona player sidelined for the match. The Argentina defender is still recovering from a long-term injury and has not featured all season.

Up front, Samuel Eto'o returns from suspension and looks set to start in the centre forward role, with Thierry Henry and Lionel Messi taking up the wide positions.

Real Madrid (5th - Away : 3-1-3 9:9)

Madrid currently sit in fifth place, a full nine points behind Barcelona.

Real Madrid Team News :
Ruud van Nistelrooy, Mahamadou Diarra and Ruben De La Red are all sidelined for the rest of the campaign, while Gabriel Heinze, Pepe and Miguel Torres will also miss the game through injury.

Wesley Sneijder, has been called up to the squad for the derby, but the midfielder has not fully recovered from the injury he picked up against Getafe two weeks ago and is unlikely to be risked at the start.

Finally, Marcelo and Arjen Robben also miss out through suspension.

Head to Head

Barcelona have won this fixture just once in the past six seasons, a 3-0 victory in 2004. Since then Real Madrid have managed two draws and a 1-0 win last season.

In Madrid, it is Real that also hold the upper hand with a 3-1-2 record which includes three victories in the last four seasons.

Last season Real Madrid did the "double" over Barcelona winning 1-0 here and 4-1 in the Santiago Bernabeu.

In the last ten Barcelona v Real Madrid clashes here at the Nou Camp, Barca hold a slight edge with three victories to two and five draws.

However, all three of Barca's victories have been emphatic with scorelines of 3-0, 2-0 and 3-0. When Barca win this game, they don't stop at a one-goal margin.

THE VERDICT

It all appears to be stacked against Real Madrid for this fixture, with a massive injury list and disarray in the club following a series of poor results.

Having seen both sides play full matches last weekend, it's obvious that Barcelona are in better form, and the Catalan club will be desperate to record a long awaited win over Madrid.

It doesn't always work out that way of course, and football is littered with examples where a quality team overcomes the obstacles to win a "derby" - Arsenal winning at Chelsea earlier this month being a prime example.

But, if Barcelona do get on top early then I think that they will win this game with some ease, and so I'll actually take them on the asian handicap and give away a goal start.

If Barca can win then it should be by a couple of goals.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Barcelona 3-0 Real Madrid

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Barcelona 53% - Draw 30% - Real Madrid 16%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

If you disagree with me about Barca winning then there is some value on the DRAW at prices above 3/1 (4.16) - especially as this fixture does see a lot of drawn results.

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take BARCELONA with a -1 goal handicap. If they win then it should be by more than a 1 goal margin.