Malaga CF v Atletico Madrid
Football: Spain, Primera Division
Sunday, 25th January 2009 - Kickoff 16:00

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Malaga (7th - Home Rec : 6-2-2 18:12)

After a bit of a mid-season slump, Malaga are now bang in form having won five of their last seven league fixtures at all venues and their last three games in a row.

A kind fixture list for the last four home fixtures has certainly helped Malaga, but they've taken advantage of that well, winning them all scoring 11 goals, and keeping three clean sheets.

Malaga Team News :
Malaga will be without in-form striker Adrian after he suffered an injury in the victory over Espanyol last week.

That could well mean a start for Albert Luque up front, or for Salva, who has struggled to find playing time this season but is now fit.

Atletico Madrid (6th - Away Rec : 3-4-3 19:22)

Atletico Madrid's successful run of results have hit a roadblock recently, with a pair of losses against Valencia and Athletic Bilbao and then a 1-1 draw against Almeria.

Atletico are always srong at home, but defensively they are suspect on the road, and the 22 away goals conceded is the 3rd worst record in the league.

Atletico Madrid Team News :
Atletico Madrid will be without Ever Banega after he was sent off against Almeria last weekend and Maxi Rodríguez is still a doubt.

That could mean that Florent Simana-Pongolle starts on the right flank again, whilst Mariano Pernía is a doubt, and could be replaced by Antonio Lopez.

Probable Teams

Malaga :
Goitia;
Gaspar, Rosario, Cuadrado, Calleja;
Lolo, Apono;
Eliseu, Baha, Duda;
Luque

Atletico Madrid :
Leo Franco;
Lopez, Ujfalusi, Heitinga, Seitaridis;
Simao, Maniche, Assuncao, Sinama-Pongolle;
Forlan, Aguero

Head to Head

Malaga have not hosted Atletico for three seasons, but previously they've won more games than they've lost when playing here (3-0-2).

Betting Verdict

Overall, I would say that there is little to choose between these two sides, and I would expect each team to be favoured to win their home fixtures against each other.

The bookmaker odds disagree with that idea, perhaps because Atletico have a bigger name, and that seems to offer some value on this game if you're prepared to back the home team

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Malaga 3-2 Atletico Madrid

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Malaga 42% - Draw 26% - Atletico Madrid 31%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll take MALAGA to win.