Poland v Northern Ireland
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010, European (UEFA) Qualifiers
Saturday, 5th September 2009 - Kickoff 19:30

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Poland (4th) 3-1-2 18:7

Poland are sitting in 4th place in the group, but are still very much in the race for the runners-up spot in this group with a game in hand - but it's esstential for the Poles chances that this match is won.

Last time out the Polish side had a very easy easy win over San Marino, winning 10-0 in a match that did little to boost the reputation of international football.

Experienced right-back Marcin Wasilewski will be missed after a horrific leg break while playing for his Belgian club side Anderlecht against Standard Liege in a league game on Sunday.

Poland's home record is good over the years, with a 15-5-4 run, giving a 63% home win record. It's been three years and nine games since the last competitive home defeat.

Poland Team News :
Poland will be without injured Arsenal goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski due to a knee problem. This should mean Celtic keeper Artur Boruc starts in goal.

Northern Ireland (2nd) 4-1-2 12:6

Northern Ireland are looking to compete the double over Poland after a 3-2 victory in Belfast in March but away wins are hard to come by for the Irish.

In the last 4 and ½ qualifying campaigns, Northern Ireland have played 23 away games for just three wins and a 3-6-14 record.

The wins came over Malta in 2001 (1-0), a thumping 4-1 victory over little Liechtenstein in 2007, and a 3-0 win over San Marino last Time out.

Northern Ireland started the group with 2 losses on the road, but are unbeaten in their last five games, using home advantage to good effect.

Northern Ireland Team News :
Northern Ireland must do without winger Chris Brunt and striker Andy Little after both picked up injuries in training. Chris Baird also sits out through suspension.

The Betting Verdict

I have Poland as strong favourites for this game, and I had expected to see prices of around 1.20 to 1.25 on the home side.

Granted, Northern Ireland's recent run is good, but those away losses to both Slovakia and Slovenia are telling, especially as I have Poland as a stronger team than both those opponents.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Poland 2-0 Northern Ireland

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Poland 80% - Draw 14% - N.Ireland 6%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take POLAND to win.