TCU Horned Frogs @ Virginia Cavaliers
NCAA Football 2009
Saturday 12th September 2009
Kickoff 15:30 local / 20:30 GMT

TCU Horned Frogs #16

TCU enters the game ranked 16th in both of the major rankings. They finished last season ranked #7, their highest ending ranking in 50 years. They won 11 games and only lost 2. Coach Gary Patterson has led TCU to double-digit wins 5 times in the last 7 years.

The "Horned Frogs" are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They only allowed 18 touchdowns last year, which was third fewest. They were tops in the country with only 217 yards of offense allowed per game.

They were one of two teams in NCAA Division I not to play last weekend. There should not be much of a rust factor, though. TCU has won its last 6 opening games by an average of 17.5 points.

Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia, on the other hand, is a total mess. The team had built a strong tradition in the 90’s and early this decade, but it has all fallen apart now. They were 5-7 last year, but that isn’t indicative of how bad they were.

Then they began this season with a 14-26 loss to in-state rivals William and Mary at home last Saturday. There aren’t really words to describe how sad that is. This was mostly the result of Virginia turning the ball over 7 (yes SEVEN!) times.

Virginia’s offense was very poor last year, averaging less than 17 points per game. This year looks to be no different as they have no new playmakers and are trying a new offense.

Head to Head

The only prior meeting between these schools was in 1994 when Virginia beat TCU 20-10 (I was there!). Obviously that has little to do with this game.

THe Betting Verdict

TCU’s defense will just be too much for Virginia in this game. They were +13 in turnovers last year and should be able to create some more on Saturday. TCU will keep the ball most of the game and gradually wear down Virginia’s defense.

The bottom line is that TCU has better talent, a better coach, and a better system in place. Virginia’s home field advantage just won’t add up to much.

The Pick :

TCU 27 - Virginia 10

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take TCU to win and give the 11.5 points.