Denmark v Sweden
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010 European Qualifiers (UEFA)
Saturday, 10th October 2009 - Kickoff 19:00

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Denmark (1st) Home : 2-1-0 7:1

Denmark have punch above their weight so far in the group, but the 1-1 draw in Albania last time out means that the Danes still have some work to do in order to reach the World Cup finals in South Africa.

With just two rounds left Denmark can qualify in first place with a win in this match or "almost" qualify with a draw (and owning superior goal difference).

Soren Rieks was forced to withdraw from the Denmark squad on Monday due to injury, while Jesper Gronkjaer withdrew with a knee injury on Wednesday.

So coach Morten Olsen has recalled Liverpool defender Daniel Agger after a lengthy injury he is likely to return to the starting XI right away.

Probable Denmark Line-up :
Andersen
Kvist, Kjaer, Agger, Jacobsen
Poulsen, Silberbauer; Jorgensen, Tomasson, Rommedahl
Bendtner

Sweden (2nd) Away : 2-2-0 3:1

Sweden have had this match looming large in the nations psyche ever since June, when Denmark came into Solna and stole all three points in a smash and grab raid thanks to a 22nd minute goal from Thomas Kahlenberg.

Now, after back to back wins over little Malta, the equation seems quite clear for Sweden, win here, and then beat Albania in order to clinch a runners-up spot and a playoff place.

Even though four points might do (if Portugal slip up) coach Lars Lagerback has made it simple for his side by publically saying "We will focus on the last two games and on taking six points" ... "The other games we can't do anything about."

Lagerback will be without Bolton Wanderers forward Johan Elmander due to a thigh injury but Markus Rosenberg and Viktor Elm and Daniel Andersson are back in the squad.

Probable Sweden Line-up :
Isaksson
Nilsson, Mellberg, Majstorovic, Safari
R. Elm, Svensson, Kallstrom, V. Elm
Ibrahimovic, H. Larsson

The Group Standings

TEAM      P W D L  F  A   GD Pts
 Denmark  8 5 3 0 15: 4  +11  18
 Sweden   8 4 3 1  9: 3   +6  15
 Portugal 8 3 4 1 10: 5   +5  13
 Hungary  8 4 1 3  9: 5   +4  13
 Albania  9 1 4 4  5: 9   -4   7
 Malta    9 0 1 8  0: 22 -22   1

The Betting Verdict

I have little difference between these two sides, with Sweden perhaps being slightly stronger, but Denmark with home advantage and the mental advantage of the knowledge that they've beaten Sweden already in this group.

Denmark v Sweden is always going to be a big local rivalry, although we did see a strance situation in Euro2004 when betting punters "knew" that the two sides would play a scoring draw - and that was exactly what happened with that match finishing 2-2 to push both sides through at the expense of Italy.

This time however, Sweden will probably need to push for a victory, as any dropped points would open the door for Portugal to progress with two wins (as expected).

I feel that this game will be a tight and tense affair, with Sweden bossing the game, but no prepared to give the Arsenal striker Bendtner too much space at the back.

This one feels like a draw to me.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Denmark 1-1 Sweden

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Denmark 28% - Draw 36% - Sweden 36%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I think it's worth a shot at the DRAW - espescially as it's the biggest priced result.