France v Republic of Ireland
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010 European (UEFA) Qualifiers
Wednesday 18th November 2009 - Kickoff 20:00

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France - Home 4-1-0 12:2

France have not been absolutely dominant at home during qualification, but Les Blues have generally done enough to get the win.

Interestingly, the one failure was against Romania with a 1-1 draw, and I rank the Romanian side as being very similar strength to this Irish side.

On the flip side, the 2-1 win over Serbia just underlines that the Frnce side have the skills to beat the best in Europe, and France have not lost a home qualifier since Russia prevailed 3-2 ten years ago.

As long as French coach Raymond Domenech does not get in the way then France are deserved favourites to qualify.

Ireland - Away 2-3-0 6:4

Ireland should travel with some confidence after going through a tough group unbeaten on the road including a very good 1-1 draw with Italy.

Another positive thing to consider for the Irish is that they scored goals in 4 of the 5 away games, and against both of the stronger sides - Bulgaria and Italy.

Ireland will have as many as 25,000 Irish supporters expected to be cheering on their heroes at the Stade de France, and if/when Ireland score then qualification will be just one goal away.

It could be a magic night for the Irish.

THe Betting Verdict

I full expect France to go through now - after winning the first leg 1-0 in Ireland - but I do not think that this game will be the easy procession some people think.

Ireland have put in some very battling performances, and have yet to be outclassed in ANY games during this qualification process. Ireland have drawn three of five away games.

On the down side, Ireland need to score, and need to win, and that fact will put all the onus on Ireland to make the running in the game - and that could be disasterous for the visitors.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

France 2-1 Ireland (or 1-1 Draw)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

France 58% - Draw 28%- Ireland 14%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

A home win is the most likely result, but the bookmakers are not offering any value with those prices.

Statistically, the prices of 4.00+ (3/1) for the DRAW look like the best bet.