CSKA.Moscow-Saturn.Ramenskoe
Football: Russian Premier League 2009/2010
Sunday, 29th November 2009. Kickoff 12:00

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CSKA (5th) HOME 8-1-5 23:13

CSKA made a major step towards qualification for Europa League after the victory against Spartak Moscow moved them into the top 5. They can still be pushed by Moskva, so full concentration and preferably a win are required. Gonzalez and Carvalho are sidelined with injuries. Igor Akinfeev’s yellow card (4th of the season) has been overruled and cancelled by the Disciplinary Commitee.

Despite Guilherme’s complete recovery from a hip injury – Leonid Slutsky should continue using the services of Tomas Necid upfront. Same goes for nominal central midfielder Pavel Mamaev, who is being constantly appointed on the left wing. Elsewhere no surprises should occur.

Tactic/Mood/Confidence
I expect CSKA to have an ear out for the news arriving from Moskva-Dynamo Moscow match and adjust the tactics accordingly to the scoreline of that important fixture. CSKA has been conceding plenty of goal recently and logically players will be asked to keep things tighter at the back.

After the midweek win against Wolfsburg 2-1 CSKA definitely look to be brimming with confidence.

Last match analysis Spartak-CSKA 2-3
The match had serious resemblance with the derby played earlier in the season, when CSKA took the lead and then had to succumb to a bitter but logical 1-2 defeat. This time it was Spartak who enjoyed the brighter start and were awarded a penalty on the 7th minute of the match, which Alex coolly converted. Hosts continued bullying CSKA around, but the goal came from the other end when Krasic’ cross found Dzagoev unmarked and the Russian international made no mistake from close range.

The tie was completely turned around when Tomas Necid gave CSKA the lead early in the second half. Spartak started to wear out physically, but created a goal out of nothing – Welliton netted his 21st of the season. Real drama struck 3 minutes from full time when Necid’s long range effort was turned into his own net by Soslan Dzhanaev.

Spartak were considered strong favorites before the kick off and there were plenty of logical reasons for that. But despite preparing with 50% of the squad for the derby (the other half was on international duty with national teams) Slutsky once again triumphed against his most comfortable opponent. There was a share of luck to the result though, as Soslan Dzhanaev single handedly presented CSKA with a win. Army-men back line was at the same horrible level and could easily concede more than 2 goals.

Saturn (7th) AWAY 4-3-7 16:24

Saturn can hope to get a ticket to the Europa League, given 3 conditions: their victory vs. CSKA, Moskva’s loss to Dynamo and Zenit’s triumph in the Russian cup. A very unlikely coincidence, which reminds me a combo bet. Anyhow Saturn will do what they can to use the slimmest of chances. Evseev,Igonin and Loskov – 3 veterans – all remain injured.

Key attacking midfielder Alexey Ivanov missed the previous fixture due to a flu infection – however he is expected to make the line up in Luzhniki. If nothing extra-ordinary pops up – Saturn will field identical starting 11 to the last 5 or 6 games.

Tactic/Mood/Confidence
Saturn does not enjoy a positive record in fixtures against top clubs throughout the season, but during this fall Andrey Gordeev’s men are not accepting any authorities. They will offer their trademark football keeping well organized in all lines and stinging on the counters.

Players are aware that they can jump on the train to the European Cups and will give it all out on the pitch.

Last match analysis Saturn-Krylia Sovetov 3-1
Saturn virtually exploded upon the starting whistle and locked visitors in their own half. Benoit Angbwa’s goal was a logical conclusion of the early pressure. Little was changed after hosts had taken the lead as Krylia hardly found time to breathe. Andrey Karyaka upset his former teammates with a long shot effort on the 45th minute.

After the half time interval guests lifted their faces up and earned a penalty. It turned out to be the culmination moment of the whole match as Roman Adamov missed from 11 meters to psychologically bury his teammates. Jiri Jarosik scored an own goal on the 61st minute and Roman Adamov recovered for the unconverted penalty kick to make the score 1-3.

Sidelined by fhe flu infection Ruslan Nakhushev and Alexey Ivanov were substituted by Dmitry Parfenov and youngster Alexey Sapeta. Both enjoyed a rather positive performance, especially the legendary left back who was out of professional football for around 2 years due to numerous injuries. Saturn had a visible emotional advantage over the visitors and showed good motivation to reach the necessary result on the night.

Betting advice

I will put aside Asian Handicap betting during this last week-end. Perhaps things will get better with the more straigh-forward fixed odds betting.

Everything speaks for CSKA's win. I don't think the post-CL syndrome will strike Army-men here. The players are riding such a huge wave of enthusiasm, that it'll bring them to victory in case legs don't work properly.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take CSKA @ 1.53 with Bet365
or @ 1.40 with Ladbrokes.