Tennis
2010-04-04 - ATP Masters Miami vs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Tennis, United States
Preview
The second of the back to back Masters events takes place in Miami over the next 2 weeks and punters will be hoping it takes a more familiar look. Indian Wells last week was a tournament full of surprises in both the Mens and Womens events and we saw Ivan Ljubicic bring home odds of 300/1 to claim his first Masters tournament.
The big 4 of the World all struggled last week with only Rafael Nadal making the Semi Final although both the Spaniard and Novak Djokovic were beaten by Ljubicic on his way to winning the event. Roger Federer only managed to win 1 match and Andy Murray was a Quarter Final loser to Robin Soderling.
Other players to catch the eye in Indian Wells were the aforementioned Soderling and also Andy Roddick who was the Runner Up. Tomas Berdych looked to be in strong form although this tournament will miss Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin Del Potro through injury.
So on to the main draw and how it could potentially shake up.
Roger Federer is the main threat at the top of the draw and I think last week would have served him well even though he did exit the competition early. The draw here in Miami has been kind to him and he should get through the Quarter Final after beating Tomas Berdych in the 4th round. While I mentioned Berdych being in excellent form, his 1-8 record against Federer may affect him mentally to beat the World Number 1.
Federer could potentially meet my ill-fated tip from last week, Marin Cilic in the Quarter Final but he has some very difficult hurdles to overcome in Marcos Baghdatis, who beat Federer last week, and Fernando Verdasco in his way. I would expect Fernando Verdasco to perhaps be the man to face Federer in the Quarter Final and the World Number 1 should go through.
The Second Quarter of the draw is again heavily weighted in one half of it. Andy Murray was beaten by Robin Soderling last week but even in his poor form he almost managed to turn the game around and he does have a good route to the Quarter Final here. Robin Soderling is again a potential Quarter Final opponent for the British Number 1 although he should be in line for a mouth watering clash with the Chilean Fernando Gonzalez. The big hitting South American missed Indian Wells to help in the rebuilding of the country after the devastating earthquake that hit last month but he is back and should be inspired to put in a good performance.
Gonzalez also has a strong record against Soderling and could surprise the Swede on these courts. I dont think Andy Murray should be too concerned with either of these opponents as his last 2 losses to each has been when they have been playing as well as they can. Even so, Murray fights his way back into matches and has a strong record in Miami.
The bottom half of the draw seems to be a little more spread out. Rafael Nadal looks like he is on a collision course with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Quarter Final here. While I fully expect Nadal to get there, Tsonga is likely going to have to get through Phillip Kohlschreiber and John Isner. Kohlschreiber came very close to beating Novak Djokovic last week and did beat Tsonga in their last meeting, albeit on a clay court. While it will be tough, I do think Tsonga can come through this section.
In the final Quarter of the draw, the main threat to Novak Djokovic seems to be in the form of high flying Americans Andy Roddick and Sam Querrey. Querrey is a threat, but seems to lack the total consistency required for these Masters events and while it is possible that he can beat the Serbian World Number 2, I dont think he will make his breakthrough just yet.
Andy Roddick has received a kind draw and will look forward to having a chance to take revenge on Ivan Ljubicic in the 4th round where they are seeded to meet. Roddick remains the ultimate competitor and has been feeling like he is getting back to the form that took him to the Wimbledon Final last year and if he plays like he did last week, I can see him getting through to the Semi Final from this section.
Prediction
Last week I tipped Andy Murray to get through to the Final and win the event at Indian Wells and feel he was close to doing that. He has a good record here in Miami and could win his 2nd Masters tournament here next week. Roger Federer should pose a strong challenge for him if they meet in the Semi Final and that match could decide the winner of the event if it comes about.
I am also going to tip Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to do well here. He should make it through to a match with Rafael Nadal, a person who has been taken out of his game on the North American hard courts by those players who hit through the ball and not allow the Spaniard time to dictate. That was most clear here in Miami in 2008 when Nikolay Davydenko demolished Nadal in the Final.
Tsonga also has a good record against potential Semi Final opponent Andy Roddick. Roddick beat Soderling last week, a similar player to Tsonga, but could be considered fortunate to do so. The mercurial Frenchman could bring in big odds with a bit of luck as he looks to make his breakthrough on the hard courts of America.
The Pick :
Andy Murray v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
BEST BETTING TIP :
Andy Murray e/w @ 6.0 (Ladbrokes)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga e/w @ 41 (Ladbrokes)
