Essendon Bombers v Carlton Blues
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premiership
Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), Melbourne
Friday, 6th August 2010, Start 19:40 AEST

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What a clash we have for Friday night. While the feature match is on Saturday night, this game sees two traditional rivals go head to head both keen for wins.

Essendon are not mathematically out of the finals race but cannot afford to lose and Carlton need to stop the rot going into the finals and if they aren’t careful may even miss out.

Essendon Bombers (12, 7-11)
Form : LLLWW

The Bombers have put two successive wins together after a run of losses that saw the pressure mount on their coach.

The most recent win was against the highly fancied Saints whom Essendon easily accounted for after a blistering opening quarter. This came as a massive shock to most pundits as the Saints were thought to be serious finals contenders up until now.

In defence the Bombers youth should have an easier night than last Friday night however we know that players can rise to the occasion.

Heath Hocking will be a very handy defender in the future for the Dons and this season has saw him play well in some and poor in others, Like some of his other young teammates consistency is an issue that will need to be addressed in the offseason for the Dons. Dustin Fletcher is the stalwart of the Dons and at around 35 he is showing no signs of losing his form, and he will need to guide the young Bomber defence once again this weekend.

The Essendon midfield is lead by Jobe Watson and he will need to be strong early in order to get his team up and about. Brent Stanton is one player who has been fairly solid all year for the Bombers and I would not at all be surprised to see him take out the club’s best an fairest. He will need to be near his best along with Mark McVeigh on Friday night because the centre is where the Blues possess their greatest strength.

Up forward the Bombers can be a mixed bag on most weeks. They have lost Scott Gumbleton but he didn’t offer a lot anyway. The player who has been impressing in the last couple of weeks has been Angus Monfries. He is a smallish man who can leap high and take a strong grab, but more importantly his ground level skills make him stand out the most.

If Monfries can repeat this again on Friday and if David Hille can offer something when he sits in the forward 50 I think the Bombers can have a another successful evening.

Carlton Blues (7th, 9-9)
Form : WLLWL

The Blues need to keep winning where possible in order to get a home final against a team like Sydney. If they have to play a side like the Hawks or travel to Fremantle then Carlton could be in serious trouble in the first round of finals. A win is imperative but after an embarrassing effort against the Pies last weekend I question whether the Blues have it in them.

The backline is all over the shop as demonstrated by the ease in which the Pies tallied points last Saturday. The likes of Dennis Armfield, Michael Jamison and Paul Bower just did not seem accountable and quite often skill errors on their behalf opened the door right up for Collingwood. The Bombers are similar to the Pies in the respect that they can apply pressure and score quick when they get a run on, so if the Blues struggle again it will makes things extremely difficult.

Chris Judd is likely to play this weekend after hurting his chest/shoulder on Saturday. His presence is vital because the Blues rely so heavily on him. Even though they have Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs roaming through the centre, a Judd-less Carlton side is rudderless. This is a big game for Ryan Houlihan and Kade Simpson who will need to make serious contributions through the middle in order for Carlton to win.

The Blues forward line was shut down for a half last weekend. They kicked 2 goals 1 behind for a total of 13 first half points. It was shocking and they need to address this very quickly. Expect Eddie Betts to bounce back this week and pop up with 2-3 important goals. But my question is will that be enough? With Jarrad Waite and Lachie Henderson battling to find serious form it could be tough for the Blues to apply constant scoreboard pressure.

The Pick :

The Bombers win in a close game.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the Essenden Bombers to win at 2.02 on Centrebet
(Medium Stakes)