Geelong Cats v Carlton Blues
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premiership
Etihad Stadium (ES), Melbourne
Friday, 20th August 2010, Start 19:40 AEST

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This is a big clash at the G on a Friday night. Geelong has sewn up 2nd place and is just playing themselves into form but Carlton need a win to ensure they play in Melbourne and not Sydney or Perth in the first week of finals.

The way the Cats played last week was as good as any team has played all year and I think they can go on with it on Friday night.

Geelong Cats
2nd, 15-5 W/L, Form : LWWLW

The Cats beat the Bulldogs by 101 points last week, which is a massive margin against a top 4 side. Everyone performed well for the Cats last week and with Gary Ablett back to his very best after a quieter spell the signs could be ominous for Carlton.

Down back the Cats are lead by Matty Scarlett who continues to be an important figure down back even into his older playing years. He should get the young Lachie Henderson and will do a good job on him if he is at his best.

The other key defenders are Andrew Mackie and Darren Milburn. These two will float across half back and take big marks at will before setting up many of Geelong’s forward forays. David Wojcinski is a vital cog in the Cats’ machine and his ability to break through the lines should help the Cats quickly turn defence into attack.

In the centre Joel Selwood has been dominating for the Cats for about 10 weeks now, and it would not be a surprise to see him go close to snaring the Brownlow Medal this year. His in and under work is at the elite level and he wins so many free kicks because of his commitment to go and get the ball off the ground. With the likes of Paul Chapman and Ablett running past Selwood and using the ball so well by foot it could get ugly if the Carlton midfield is not at their best.

Up forward I think it is fair to say that Steve Johnson is in career best form and is kicking goals for fun. With Johnson combining with Travis Varcoe and Matthew Stokes in the small forwards department the Cats are blessed with quality. In terms of leading targets Cam Mooney and James Podsiadly are finding their straps and last week when these 5 combined the outcome was a slaughter of the Bulldogs.

Carlton Blues
6th, 11-9 W/L, Form : LWLWW

The Blues dismantled a poor Richmond side last weekend but things are about to get a whole lot tougher from next week onwards. The first promising sign of Henderson gave Blues fans something to look forward to down the track but it would be a tough ask for the young guy to back it up again this week against the league’s best.

Down back for the Blues it will be Michael Jamison and Paul Bower who are the key defenders. Jamison is held in high regard at his club and there is talk he could be a future captain. The tough thing for the blues will be restricting the Cats because they can score from multiple outlets and 4 Blues defenders could have good games and they would still lose. So with that in mind the likes of Jordan Russel and Dennis Armfield will also need big matches to curb the smaller Geelong forwards.

The centre is strong for the blues but it does not run anywhere near as deep as Geelong’s. Chris Judd is the captain and his ability to lead from the front and set an example will be needed on Friday night to ensure his team mates pull their share of weight. Marc Murphy is emerging but is yet to be a 100 percent elite midfielder. Consistency is his issue and a big match on Friday will put many doubters’ heads back down. Their depth will be tested but the Blues have a bit of class in the centre and it will be the centreline which will determine how much they lose by.

Up forward Lachie Henderson had a career best outing last week when he kicked 3 goals 2 behinds and had 10 marks. He is a future star of the game but until there is consistency and more results against big opponents I am not sure how quickly Henderson will develop. The small forwards such as Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett will need a massive performance this week in order to keep the game close and I am not sure that more than one can fire on the same night against the Cats.

Last time these two sides met :

Round Five, 2010 at the MCG :
Carlton 15.14 (104) defeated Geelong 9.14 (68).

The Pick :

Geelong to win

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Geelong to win by 25+ on Centrebet at 1.68.
(High Stakes- Bet of the Week)