Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premieship
Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), Melbourne
Saturday, 11th September 2010, Start 19:15 AEST

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This game will be the closer of the two that we will see this weekend.

The Dogs are coming off a hiding at the hands of the Pies and the Swans impressed for most of their game overcoming the Blues by 5 points.

Expect this game to be what finals footy is all about ... tight contests, hardness at the ball and there will be sore bodies after this one.

Western Bulldogs

The Doggies were no match for the Pies. They did have some injuries and therefore maybe a slight excuse but they were thoroughly dominated. They will train hard this week and their coaching staff will look for ways to win against the Swans but I feel the Swans will relish the situation just that little bit more.

The defence of the Doggies sees Brian Lake as the key defender and he could get Adam Goodes or Jesse White depending on how the Sydney forwards line up. But there is also a whisper that Daniel Bradshaw may be right to go on the weekend and if he is the Doggies defence will encounter a tough night. This is where Tom Williams and Ryan Hargrave will need to step up and if they have anything below a solid outing the Swannies could be in for a big one.

The midfield is the area of concern for the Bulldogs. The will be missing Cooney who is ruled out for the season with injury and his acceleration and sublime ball use makes him one of the best 5 midfielders in the league. That leaves a lot up to the likes of Ryan Griffen, Nathan Eagleton and Callan Ward who will be called to stand up in his absence. Daniel Cross is an in and under player who will love the fierce tackling the Swans will bring to the table and his clearance work will be vital for the Dogs.

The forward line will see the usual situation of Barry Hall needing to do a lot against his former club to secure a spot in the prelim final. Hall has had a very good season but you can expect him to get Heath Grundy who is in career best form and that may make things tough for the big man.

Shaun Higgins is a small forward who has failed to live up to the promise he gave us a couple of years ago. We all know the talent is there but whether he can turn it on is another question, look for him to have a big one if the Dogs are to win.

Sydney Swans

The margin was only 5 points against Carlton but I felt the Swans were clearly the team who deserved the win. They fought hard and lifted a gear when the Blues challenged them to come away with the win. The contest on Saturday will suit the Swans who are known for their pressure and tackling.

The defence has Grundy at the helm and if he can keep Hall quiet the Swans will go a long way to beating the Dogs. Ted Richards has also been playing as a key defender of late and I would guess that he might take Jarrad Grant of the Dogs. Tadgh Kennelly and Rhyce Shaw will offer run and carry off half back and if they can link well with the midfielders and half forwards I think the Swans could have a big win in Melbourne.

The midfield for the Swans has the dual threat once again. The old guard who is known for their pressure, tackling and hard ball gets is led by Brett Kirk and Jude Bolton. Kirk is the spiritual leader of the club and with him retiring at season’s end the Swans players will lift for him. The other part of the dual threat is the pace and excitement of Kieran Jack and Daniel Hannebery. Hannebery who is the best first year player this year has a lot to offer and the Swans have the right mix through the centre.

If Bradshaw comes in up forward for the Swans they will be blessed for options. Jesse White can play tall and the man who did the damage against Carlton was Adam Goodes. He led well and took some very strong marks. When you throw Ryan O’Keefe and small forwards Lewis Jetta and Trent Dennis-Lane into the mix you have an unpredictable forward line that has the capacity to be explosive because you just don’t know where the goals will comes from.

The Pick :

Sydney to win in a tight encounter

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the Sydney Swans to win at 1.80 or better on Centrebet (High Stakes - Bet of the Week)

Be quick as I think the Swans will get backed a fair bit this week and they may start as short as 1.70 or thereabouts.