Short prices abound again as Real Madrid go off as 1/5 on shots against a Sevilla side who have not improved as expected under Gregorio Manzano. So are there any good bets in this match?

Real Madrid

2nd Place

Home Record W D L GF GA

As predicted, Madrid squeezed past basement battlers Zaragoza last weekend. Weve collected three weeks in a row at around even money prices by dutching Real Madrid to win by 1 goal and 2 goal winning margins, but last week was a bit too close for comfort as Zaragoza needed a consolation penalty to bring the bet home. Apparently, according to Mourinho, its all about cats and dogs.With dogs being two forwards, and cats being three midfielders. Or something.

The same bet does look to have potential for the visit of Sevilla. Higuain remains out for Madrid, and they simply dont carry the same goal threat without him. Madrid claim they will not be signing anyone in January but they are crying out for a better option than Benzema. Maybe Carlos Tevez has been sounded out?

Despite the reliance on Ronaldo in Higuians absence, we certainly should expect Real Madrid to win and probably get a few goals too. They’ve won 10 of the last 12 meetings at the Bernebeu including a 3-2 win last year. Looking back through those scorelines, one thing is evident. There are usually goals. Total goals in the last five meetings at the Bernebeu are 5, 7, 4,5 and 6. Madrid have scored at least 3 on each occasion. And Sevilla were better then than they are now.

So Madrid to win then, but as usual there is no value in Madrid to win or the asian handicap prices, the bookies quite rightly see this as a one horse race and have priced accordingly.

And Im not as keen as I normally am on dutching the 1 and 2 goal winning margins this time because this can be a high scoring fixture and Sevilla are in all sorts of trouble. Its not out of the question that Sevilla get handed the sort of lesson that Madrid dealt out to Deportivo.

Real Madrid Team News
Marcelo and Xabi Alonso are suspended. The former is probably good news on current form. Dudek, Canales, Ramos, Higuian, Kaka and Gago remain out, which must leave Mourinho cursing his luck (or his medical and fitness staff).

Sevilla

11th Place

Away Record W3 D0 L4 GF8 GA13

Sevilla. Crisis. Four league defeats in a row, three of which were against very beatable sides at home where they are normally so strong. New Coach Gregorio Manzano: I am struggling to influence a group who are suffering from very low morale. The reality is what it is.

Sevilla are currently conceding an average of 2 goals a game against mediocre opposition, and now they travel to the Bernebeu where Real Madrid side are scoring 3.5 goals/game. Good luck with that.

They did manage a 2-2 draw in midweek with Dortmund at home in the Europa league which may have lifted spirits a little but wont have done much for their energy levels. They do have a goal in them though, and assuming they dont completely surrender there is a chance of them helping us cover the 3.5 goal line.

Sevilla Team News
For Sevilla, key men are dropping like flies, almost like they dont fancy this one. Perottis done a hamstring, Kanoute and Navas are doubtful. Kone Guarente and Dragutinovic remain out and Alexis is suspended. This is all bad news for Manzano.

The Betting Verdict :

On form and head to heads, Madrid should score 3 goals or more here, while despite the Mourinho effect they still do have defensive vulnerabilities, particularly conceding consolation goals.

I am concerned that it is a short price but Im going to go for over 3.5 total goals in this match at 1.96. As outlined above, this bet would have collected in 5 of the last 5 meetings here.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Real Madrid 3 Sevilla 1

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Real Madrid 70% - Draw 20% - Sevilla 10%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Over 3.5 goals at 1.96 at PinnacleSports