EURO 2012 BETTING PICK - BOSNIA V ROMANIA

Euro 2012

2011-03-26 - Bosnia vs Romania

A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt

Bosnia v Romania
Football: Euro 2012 qualifying
Venue: "Bilino Polje" stadium, Zenica, Bosnia
Saturday 26th March – Kickoff time: 20:15 GMT+2

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Bosnia

After just failing to qualify for the 2010 World Cup (eliminated by Portugal in the final knockout round), Bosnia is confident that they will be the team who will qualify alongside France.

Despite having some quality players that made a name for themselves in strong European leagues like Dzeko, Misimovic or Pjanic, Bosnia showed its limits on their previous home game against France, losing 0-2.

The confidence within the squad is high and they seem not to give their opponents any credit to win the game. I’m not sure where is this optimism coming from, after all they only beat Luxembourg so far in this group.

All the big names are either midfielders or strikers, their defense is vulnerable to say at least, they conceded at least one goal in every one of their previous 6 home games.

Lyon's midfielder, Miralem Pjanic suffered an injury during a training session, but it’s early to give a verdict whether he will be on the pitch Saturday or not. Goalkeeper Kenan Hasagic also has some back pains so his appearance is doubtful.

Probable Bosnia Team line-up :
Hasagic (Istanbul BB) – Mujdza (Freiburg), Mravac (Westerlo), Spahic (Montpellier), Lulic (Young Boys) – Rahimic (CSKA Moscow), Misimovic (Dynamo Moscow), Pjanic (Lyon), Medunjanin (Maccabi Tel Aviv) – Dzeko (Manchester City), Ibisevic (Hoffenheim)

Romania

Probably the biggest news around the Romanian national team is Adrian Mutu's comeback after a long conflict with coach Razvan Lucescu, that started after the 5-0 defeat in Serbia.

Mutu is scoring goals for Fiorentina, showing a good form and appetite for football despite not being 100% fit. At 31, Mutu is the oldest player from the Romanian squad and it’s about time to help out his national team.

Razvan Lucescu has been trying out two different systems, a 4-4-2 with Gabriel Muresan (CFR Cluj) and Alexa (FC Timisoara) as central midfielders and a 4-2-3-1 system with Mutu behind striker Ciprian Marica (VFB Stuttgart), supported by Ianis Zicu (FC Timisoara) and Gabriel Torje (Dinamo Bucuresti) on the wings.

I think he will go for the second one, because he won't be able to take many risks by playing with two strikers as this game is crucial for Romania’s future in this group.

The Romanian defense I would say is the the most solid compartment of the side, having Sapunaru (FC Porto) on the right, Gabriel Tamas (WBA) and Cristian Chivu (Inter Milan) who is playing as a central back at the national team, not a left back, where Romania has a quality player, who is qualified for the CL quarter finals with Shakhtar Donetsk, Razvan Rat.

Romania does not score a lot away from home, the last time Romania scored two goals was back in 2007, against Luxembourg.

Romania failed to score in their previous 3 away games, including the 2-0 defeat against France in October, but Romania was close to win a point there, however they conceded two late goals.

Probable Romanis Team line-up :
Pantilimon (FC Timisoara) – Sapunaru (FC Porto), Gabriel Tamas (WBA), Cristian Chivu (Inter Milano), Razvan Rat (Shakhtar) – Alexa (FC Timisoara), Gabriel Muresan (CFR Cluj) – Gabriel Torje (Dinamo Bucuresti), Adrian Mutu (AC Fiorentina), Ianis Zicu (FC Timisoara) or Ciprian Deac (Shalke 04) – Ciprian Marica (VFB Stuttgart)

The Betting Verdict

Romania's scoring problems come from the midfield, they don't have some central midfielders that can provide quality passes so they'll try to push on the wings where Torje and Deac are fast and can create trouble. The central midfielders are rather defensive, so they should close up the spaces between the lines and not allow Bosnia’s players to elaborate too much in that area.

Despite having some great players in front, I don't think Bosnia will score more than one goal in this game, Romania can be tough to break in games like this and the key will be whether they can score or not. If Romania scores first they’ll have a good chance to win this match, so they pretty much rely on Mutu’s form.

Yes, Bosnia is a developing team that has great potential in future, but what have they achieved so far to deserve so much credit? I don't think the odds here reflect the reality, despite Romania had some poor games lately, they do have the experience and cannot be considered outsiders against Bosnia.

Many may say that as a Romanian I'm not being objective here, but if they've followed me here on goonersguide they could have noticed that most of the time I picked against Romania, but this time I cannot agree with these odds.

The Statistics :

The Pick :