Icelandic Football
2011-07-06 - Vikingur Reykjavik vs Breidablik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football : Icelandic top league : Round 9
Wednesday July 6 2011, 19:15 (GMT)
This is an interesting game in many ways. Vikingur are one of two promoted sides this season and after a decent start they have been victims of injuries and things have gone pretty bad for them.
Breidablik, on the other hand, are the current title holders but their start have been somewhat of a disappointment. Both sides are in desperate need for points and this clash should be a great chance for them to go for all important three points.
Vikingur Reykjavik (10th 1-3-4)
Vikingur's lack of range of good players has shown the hard way in recent rounds. After their key defender, Egill Atlason, got injured they have conceded much more than in the first few rounds. Also their striker, B. Tagefusa, has been injured and their other striker, Helgi Sigurdsson, did not play the last game against Valur due to injuries but he's hoping to play against Breidablik.
Another player who has disappointed quite badly is their forward, Petur G. Markan, who has been terrible all season and is heavily critisised for being just a passenger in the team. If Vikingur can not get their group stronger they seem destined to go straight down again.
Vikingur currently sit in 11th place with 6 points and only 5 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their overall record is 1-3-4 but 1-1-2 at home and 0-2-2 away. Their only win came in the first round against Thor Akureyri and then came three draws in the next four rounds. Since that they have lost three games in a row with a scoreline of 2:7. This is after conceding only 3 goals in the first five rounds.
Vikingur's forward play has been terrible and nothing at all happening there. This was best seen in their last game against Valur where they were a man up from the 25th minute but still they didn't produce any danger up front until they managed to score in the 80th minute. Even then they managed to blow it away giving Valur 2 goals in the final 10 minutes.
The strategy of Vikingur's manager over those last 10 minutes was peculiar where he kept changing the formation of his team producing insecurity within the group. Valur used this to the fullest and simply stole all 3 points leaving Vikingur shattered.
Whether this will affect Vikingur in their game against Breidablik is hard to say but whether it does or not, they have to take some chances up front since Breidablik's defense has conceded the most in the league along with Thor Akureyri. They will probably concede since Breidablik has also scored one of the most in the league and Vikingur having conceded so many in recent games.
Having said that it's seems pretty clear cut that Vikingur will concede a goal and that means that they have to score at least 2 goals which hasn't happened since the first round.
Breidablik (7th 3-2-3)
The current champions don't seem likely to defend their crown. They sit in 7th place with 11 points and a scoreline of 12:14. There seem to be three main reasons for this: they clearly miss their best player from last season, Alfred Finnbogason, their defense has been very awarding for the oponents and they have the worst away record in the league, a terrible 0-1-2, 2:7. They have made up for this by being the second strongest at home with a record of 3-1-1, 10:7, where their forward, Kristinn Steindorsson, has been unstopable.
Breidablik's Australian striker, Dylan Jacob Macallister, has been strong for the team even though he isn't a great goalscorer. He is very strong, especially in the air, so he wins a lot of balls passing them to other open players while he draws defenders against himself.
Although Breidablik have disappointed they have been slowly improving after losing the first two league games of the season. Since then they have only lost one game, won three and drawn two. Still, it must be noted that they crashed out of the final 16 in the Cup against League one team, BI/Bolungarvik, 4-1 after it was 1-1 in 90 minutes. This was probably one of the biggest upsets in Icelandic football for a long time.
Just so that you know, BI/Bolungarvik's manager is none other than Gudjon Thordarson, former national team's, Stoke's and Barnsley's manager.
Up front Breidablik don't seem to have a lot of problems, although one could wonder what would happen if their key player, Kristinn Steindorsson, gets injured or stops producing all those goals. Their trouble lie back in their defense and that's something they need to fix if they are to close in on the top part of the table.
Surely it seems like they don't have to worry too much about that factor against such a weak attacking side like Vikingur but still Breiablik have conceded in all their games with three of them going over 3.5 and two over 2.5.
The game against Vikingur is a great chance for them to get their first away win of the season and Breidablik is highly likely to put a lot of pressure on Vikingur for the first 20-30 minutes since Vikingur have been conceding all those goals lately.
Head to head
Since it's some time since the two sides played in the same league there isn't much to look at in recent years. Looking back to 2006 there are 5 games with Vikingur winning 2 and Breidablik 1. Two games resulted in 1-1 draw. Two of those 5 games were at home to Vikingur where Vikingur won the other 4-1 but the other one was a draw.
The Betting Verdict
It's simply fair to say that Breidablik are the favorites here given the two sides position in the table. However, Vikingur will produce more home wins over the season and this could well be one of those games since Breidablik's defense isn't the strongest one.
Also, Breidablik's away record has been terrible but then again one could equally argue that Breidablik will get an away win some day and this game could well be it.
Having said that I'm not confident enough to pick either side and I would be careful about the odds on offer for Breidablik since they are only around 2.0 or so. I would rather pick Vikingur at around 3.3 but I'm very confident about an over 2.5 game here so that will be my main pick.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet :Take Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70
