English Premier
2011-08-13 - Liverpool vs Sunderland
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 13 August 2011 - Kickoff 3pm
Liverpool
It won't be much of a surprise to hear Liverpool fans talking of winning the title as that has been the case every Summer for 21 years, but the optimism has increased somewhat this season as Kenny Dalglish will have his first full season back in the hotseat and the owners seem to have invested quite a lot of money in the playing squad.
The likes of Charlie Adam, Jordan Henderson, Stewart Downing and lately Jose Enrique have been brought into Anfield as the minimum aim is to return to the Champions League. In a season without the distractions of any European competition, this aim seems more than achievable as they have narrowed the gap to last seasons 4th placed Arsenal.
The Reds finished 6th in the Premier League last season, 10 points behind Arsenal in 4th place, but they did see an upturn in fortunes following the arrival of Dalglish in January. After briefly flirting with the bottom 3 of the table, Liverpool were flying up the table and would have finished in the top 4 if we take a look at their form in the last 19 games.
They finished with a 12-4-3 record at Anfield, scoring 37 goals and conceding just 14 and it will be their form at home that will determine whether they can make a real challenge for the top 4. Liverpool won 6 of their last 8 games at Anfield, although their final home game saw them lose to Tottenham. The team conceded just 1 goal in their 6 wins.
Luis Suarez only recently returned from the Copa America, but he is in line to start this game. Steven Gerrard is out until September, while Martin Skrtel is also ruled out for this game. Glen Johnson is a doubt, but all 4 Summer signings are in line to make their debuts.
Sunderland
Steve Bruce has been very busy in the transfer market over the Summer to strengthen his team that kind of fell apart following the sale of Darren Bent in the January transfer window. Even with all the dealings made by Bruce, I still feel there is a lack of goals in this side that could cause problems in a competitive League.
Asamoah Gyan will be leading the line this season, but Sunderland will not have Danny Welbeck back from Manchester United and the aforementioned Bent was a tough loss. Connor Wickham has been brought in from Ipswich but it could be asking a lot of the young man to provide the firepower for the side.
Sunderland finished in the top half of the table last season, settling in 10th, but it is telling that there was only 8 points between them and Birmingham City in 18th. For a while, it seemed the team was on an inevitable slide towards the Championship but for a late gaining of a second wind. In fact, Sunderland would have finished in 16th position based on results from their final 19 games.
The Black Cats finished with a 5-6-8 record away from home, scoring 20 goals and conceding 29. The team won their final 2 away games to secure their spot in the Premier League, but they had lost 4 of 5 games before that and had not scored in 4 in a row.
John O'Shea is unlikely to make his competitive debut as he is struggling with a hamstring issue, but the likes of David Vaughan, Wes Brown, Craig Gardner and Sebastien Larsson are in line to play a part.
Head to Head
These two teams drew 2-2 at Anfield last season and Liverpool won 0-2 at the Stadium of Light.
Liverpool had won 4 in a row at Anfield against Sunderland before that draw last season and they had not conceded a goal in 6 games.
Darren Bent scored both goals for Sunderland last season but has moved on since then.
Sunderland have scored just 3 goals in their last 10 games against Liverpool both at home and away... All of those were scored by Bent.
Prediction
I would never go crazy in terms of stakes at this early stage of the season as teams recover from a 6 week break. Pre-season is one thing, but a competitive Premier League game will be a totally different kettle of fish and players are still trying to get their fitness up to peak conditions.
Liverpool look like they could have a decent season, although there are still big concerns with their defence. The signing of Enrique takes away the problematic left back spot, but there are still a couple of question marks surrounding the centre backs.
Anfield should be buzzing with Kenny Dalglish beginning his first full season as manager since returning to the club and I think they have made signings that are going to move them forward.
Sunderland still look like a team that may just struggle for goals and I am not convinced that Gyan and Wickham can get enough between them to get this side moving higher than their final position last season. There are still 2 weeks of the transfer window open so it is possible that another striker is brought in.
Overall I expect Liverpool to win this game but the prices are a little short for me considering it is the opening day of the season. However, I will back them to win with the added bonus of a clean sheet, something they routinely seem to manage against Sunderland.
Before last season, the Black Cats had failed to score in 6 games at Anfield and they have managed just 3 goals in 10 games overall against Liverpool.
With my concerns about the Sunderland strikeforce, coupled with the fact I expect Liverpool to win, I will take the win to nil option at a decent looking price.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Liverpool 2-0 Sunderland
