SCOTLAND v LITHUANIA
Football : Euro 2012 : Qualification
Tuesday, September 6th, 2011, 7:45PM GMT

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PREVIEW

Poor Scotland. Their hopes of getting into Euro 2012 were dealt a sharp kick in the balls when they ended up drawing their last match against the Czech Republic. Scotland were 2-1 up with less than 10 minutes to go before Rezek won a penalty for the visitors.

Scotland are now 5 points behind the Czechs, who lie 2nd behind Spain, who should run away with the group. Only 2 more matches left for Scotland, one of which is against Spain! This is a must win match, although it might just be too late.

Scotland played out a 0-0 draw in their previous match against Lithuania, away from home, but have got the talent to beat them at Hampden Park. They will be missing striker Kenny Miller, and Scott Brown and I think this has made the price on Scotland rise a bit, providing some value.

I don't see Scotland going through the motions here. Hopefully their heads will not drop and they are going to throw everything they have at Lithuania, knowing they might as well just in case the Czechs mess up and drop points. Indeed, Lithuania have won just 1 game in qualification but that came away from home against the Czech Rupublic! If you think that might mean they have a chance of beating Scotland here, think again. Lithuania are not in great form, and come into this having lost to Liechtenstein on Friday.

If anyones heads are going to drop, it should be Lithuania, who have won just 1 game and have no chance of qualifying. Playing away from home means they might not give it their best effort, as there are no home fans to give something to. Scotland, on the other hand, will play for their slim chance, and to give something to the fans.

BETTING VERDICT

I see Scotland winning this, and the prices seem fair to me. I also see Lithuania in with a chance of scoring in this one, because Scotland will bomb forward going for the win. Nothing else will do. Open game, so there should be a few goals.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Scotland to win

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Scotland to win @ 1.65 (Pinnacle)

Also consider:
Both teams to score @ 2.20 (Bet365)