NCAA Football
2011-10-14 - Hawaii at San Jose State
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Friday, October 14th, 2011, 9:00PM US
(2:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
Hawaii bounced back form those two losses to Washington State and UNLV with two wins, and will enter this game with a 1-0 conference record in the WAC and on a 2 game winning streak. San Jose are 1-1 in the WAC and have a 2-4 mark so far.
Hawaii won 56-14 against UC Davis and then smashed Louisiana Tech in a conference match last week by a 44-26 scoreline. The Hawaii Warriors have an offence that relies very strongly on the pass and is in good hands with Bryant Moniz throwing it. Moniz has thrown for more than 40 yards in each of his last 2 games and in 29 attempts has only been intercepted once, while throwing 15 TDs. Add to that, he ran for 121 yards and 3 TDs in that opening win against Colorado, which means there is always a threat that he might surprise everyone by just pounding it.
What is bloody dangerous here is that Moniz doesn't just have a couple of guys he likes to throw to. The Hawaii QB has as many as 6 different receivers who have double digit reception numbers. One of them is Royce Pollard, who leads the team with 550 yards and 6 TDs on 33 catches. Then there is Billy Ray Stutzmann, who has 2 TDs but who manages over 11 yards per catch.
San Jose States defence has been poor in troubling opposing passers. The pass rush has managed just 3 sacks all season so far and that leaves them 119th in that department. Moniz has nothing to worry about.
Matt Faulkner isn't great enough for the Spartans as the QB has just 4 TDs so far but that is negated by the 4 interceptions he has thrown so far. He has just 1,119 yards so far, completing at about a 62% clip. The fact he always tends to throw to Ryan Otten doesn't help confuse defences, as Otten has caught 3 of those 4 TD passes. Way too one dimensional.
The main threat on the Spartans offence is Brandon Rutley, who is the 3rd best rusher in the WAC and averages 5.7 yards per carry. He has run for 519 yards so far, pounding in 6 TDs. Too bad his ankle is injured and he is listed as questionable.
BETTING VERDICT
Last season, Hawaii beat San Jose on the island by a 41-7 score. I don't think swapping venues makes this a 6 point game. Take Hawaii to win comfortably, beating the 6 point spread with ease.
The Pick :
Hawaii
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Hawaii -6 @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
