Champions League
2011-11-02 - Villarreal vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Europe : Champions League
Wednesday 2nd November - Kickoff 7:45pm
Villarreal
The Yellow Submarine are firmly routed to the bottom of Group A with 3 successive defeats. With this being the "group of death" it seems incredibly unlikely that they will now qualify with a Europa League place their best chance of European football.
The campaign started badly when Bayern came to the the El Madrigal and won convincingly 2-0, the Yellow Submarine went down to the same scoreline at Napoli in gameweek 2. Napoli raced into a 2 goal lead inside 20 minutes and Villarreal never recovered.
Finally, last time out they showed greater fight and went a goal up at the Ethiad against City. However, a later Aguero winner in injury time shattered Villarreal hearts as City took the points and by doing so have virtually eliminated the Spaniards from the group.
This is also the first time that Villarreal have lost 3 straight European games and will certainly want to make amends on Wednesday evening.
When looking at the last 6 Champions League home games, the Yellow Submarine has just 2 wins against Danish sides Odense (2-0) and Aalborg (6-3). They are a hard team to beat with 3 draws against Arsenal (1-1), Panathiniakos (1-1) and Man United (0-0), their sole defeat came against Bayern in game week one.
It's worth noting that Villarreal has never lost to English opposition at home in 6 attempts. Winning 2 and drawing 4, so the history is on their side.
Team news is that Villarreal has a depleted squad with a long injury list at the club. Zapata, Ruben, Cani, Nilmar, Marchena and Rossi are all missing whilst doubts remain over Camunas and Senna. The side won only their second game of the season at the weekend to get themselves out of the bottom 2. Against City's power house lineup it looks a tall order for Villarreal to take something from the game.
Predicted Villarreal Lineup:
Diego Lopez, Rodriguez, Mussachio, Catala, Capdevila, Senna, Valero, Soriano,Camunas, Perez, De Guzman.
Man City
Mancini's City were seconds away from having it all to do in this group having only taken 1 point in their first 2 games. With City tied at 1-1 at home to Villarreal and time almost up Aguero popped up to snatch the points. The win has put City just a point behind Napoli and a win in Spain will put Mancini's men in a great position with 2 games to play.
In game week one the side were rattled by a Napoli goal against the run of play but a late Korolov equalizer meant the game ended all square at 1-1. Up next City went to the Allianz Arena and were thoroughly outclassed by Bayern in a 2-0 defeat. We all expected a big win for City against Villarreal at home given the Spaniard's poor form at the time. However, like against Napoli, City fell behind but managed to rally eventually winning the game in injury time.
The side is flying domestically, top of the league and scoring tons of goals. Against an under strength Villarreal, City must go for the win here knowing it will really set them up to qualify from the group.
Domestically, the away form is very good with the side only dropping points at Fulham in a 2-2 draw winning all their other games including a 6-1 win at Man United. The side has tons of goals in it and they are likely to attack from the off in this one. With no Zapata for Villarreal, I'm sure Aguero will get plenty of chances in this one.
Team news is that City may make a few changes as Mancini rotates his squad. Zabaleta and Korolov may get starts at full back whilst Milner looks set for a recall in midfield. Up top City will go with 2, Aguero and possibly Balotelli after he didn't start at the weekend.
Predicted Man City Lineup:
Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany, Lescott, Korolov, De Jong, Yaya, Milner, Silva, Balotelli, Aguero.
The Betting Verdict
I initially wanted to back City despite the fact that no English side has won at El Madrigal but the 1.62 on offer is plenty short in my eyes.
Regardless of the injuries to Villarreal I must respect them, this is a good side that has under performed but did win at the weekend. City may well end up winning the game but feel the price is just too short to look at the fixed market.
Instead I will try a small bet on under 2.5 goals as I feel this will be quite close for long spells. City will happily take a 1 goal win here and once in front I think they won't over commit after being sucker punched already this campaign conceding to both Napoli and Villarreal.
I was tempted by both to score; no, or City to win to nil but prefer this option in case Villarreal produce a shock result and hold City to a 1-1 draw. Narrow away win but I like the unders.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Villarreal 0-2 Man City
