LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ MIAMI HEAT
Basketball : North America : NBA
Thursday, January 19th, 2012, 8:00PM US
(1:00AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

Miami welcome the Los Angeles Lakers to South Beach for the first of only 2 meetings between the two sides. The total is set too low for me and I'm looking at a bet on the Over.

I don't understand how this game is set at a 191.5 total because the Lakers and the Heat are the two top scoring teams in the NBA. Miami are scoring 107.2 overall and a huge 114.8 at home, while the Lakers 92.2 on the road is only slightly less than their overall average of 93.3

Sure the Lakers have defending well enough to keep opponents to under 90 but this is the Miami Heat, playing on their patch with a huge point to prove.

I recommended taking the San Antonio Spurs against Miami on Tuesday and it was looking so good, with a double digit lead after the first half but Miami came back with a season high 71 points in the 2nd half and demolished the Spurs 120-98, easily covering the spread.

The Miami Heat team did not miss Dwyane Wade as LeBron scored 31 with Bosh a close second. The Lakers will struggle here against that kind of firepower, especially since they have gone 1-4 in their road games this season. Miami have a 4-1 record at home.

I think the 191.5 total number is affected by the Lakers last game, where they beat the Dallas Mavericks 73-70 thanks to a 3 pointer with 3 seconds left in the game. That low scoring game, along with the previous match between these two, here last season finishing 94-88 to Miami, might be the reason they are expected to struggle to score.

Kobe Bryant has a wrist injury and that may be factoring in too, but remember it has not stopped him scoring 30.8 per game, best in the NBA, even above LeBron's 29.8 per game, second best. These are the kind of players who will likely raise their game against the best opposition and look to make a statement.

BETTING VERDICT

Take Over 191.5 points to be scored as I can see both teams scoring close to 3 figures.

The Pick :

Over 191.5 points

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Over 191.5 points to be scored @ 1.96 (Pinnacle)