Euro 2012
2012-06-14 - Spain vs Republic of Ireland
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group C
Thursday 14th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Spain
Del Bosque's Spain will probably feel satisfied with the 1-1 draw with Italy on Sunday night. On paper the toughest team in the group was Italy and after falling behind midway through the second half, to come back and draw is not the worst result. What it does mean however, just like the World Cup Spain really has to win it's next two games to cement a place in the last 8.
Fortunately for Spain, it appears that Ireland are the weakest side in the group after their 3-1 defeat to Croatia. It's not just the score that will encourage Spain but the way Ireland were carved apart by the Croats. Spain have play makers and creativity all over the park and if they create as many openings as the Croatian's did they should win this comfortably.
Interestingly the Spanish started the game with no recognised striker up front. Instead opting for Fabregas who to give him credit, scored the equiliser and had a decent game before being subbed. With Cesc scoring you could argue the move was a success but in reality once Torres and Navas were on the field the Spanish really took control over the Italians.
Torres came on in the second half and missed two glorious chances to win the game for Spain. The bad news is he obviously isn't confident for whatever reason but the good news is he was making runs and stretching the defence which ultimately created chances for this side. With Fabregas this wasn't happening and it wouldn't surprise me if Del Bosque went with his number 9 in this one.
Republic of Ireland
Trapattoni's Ireland unfortunately crumbled in their opening game. The blueprint of keep things tight which worked so well in qualifying deserted them in this game. 2 of the 3 Croatian goals came virtually at the start of both halves, so any team talks the manager had put together meant nothing. Ireland did get back into the game at 1-1 but there was only ever going to be one winner and that unfortunately was not the Irish.
I wrote in the Croatia preview that the game was one that both sides had to win knowing Italy and Spain were up next. With Ireland losing, it's no shock to see them go out to 16/1 shots for qualification as only 2 wins will guarantee a place in the last 8.
Ideally, Ireland would prefer Italy next but instead they have Spain who will cause the back line of Ward, St Ledger, Dunne and O'Shea all sorts of problems. The same backline struggled against the Croatian pairing of Jelavic and Mandzukic so up against potentially Torres with Xavi, Iniesta and Silva coming at them this could get ugly.
If Ireland can keep it tight, say for the first 20 minutes then they can frustrate the Spanish as Italy did. At 0-0 anything is possible but they must keep their shape and structure, if they mess up early and fall behind I see no coming back for them.
Betting Verdict
Many see this game as the first proper banker of the tournament. The best team in the world needs to win and face a side who are struggling for confidence.
Yet, the 1.30 prices for Spain are only for the big hitters in this business as for the rest of us we can't use this price. The Asian Handicap is set at 1.5 goals which is odds on and probably fair. If Spain score early or take a half time lead, Ireland must attack as their tournament life is at stake. Going forward against this counter attacking side would be suicidal and I see Spain picking them off further.
I think Spain wins this to nil but at prices of 1.8 I will try my luck on the Asian Market where a 2 goal win is a part payout and a 3 goal win is a full payout. At odds against and given Spain need to win this I fancy the Champs to send out a message this Thursday.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Spain 3-0 Ireland
