Icelandic Football
2013-06-19 - Sindri vs Fylkir Reykjavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football - Icelandic Cup - Round of 16
Wednesday 19 June 2013, Kickoff 19:15 GMT
The final 16 phase will finish on Wednesday and Tursday and in this game we have the hosts who are doing all right in League 2 while the visitors are in trouble in the Top league, two leagues up.
This could be the prefect timing for Sindri, who are located at Hornafjordur, a small town in the SE part of Iceland, to produce a possible surprise.
Sindri
Sindri are not big in Icelandic football history and are currently in 6th place in League 2 after getting promoted from League 3 last season. They entered the Cup in the final 64 where they beat a League 3 team 4-3 on penalties before trashing a League 4 team 4-0. They played both games at home so this will be their 3rd home game in a row.
Sindri‘s start in the league has put them in mid table with 10 points and a record of 3 1 2, 7:7. They have only played against two of the teams who are above them facing them both on the road where they got one win but lost against the other. They still haven‘t lost at home in three league games, winning two and drawing one and they have only conceded once in those three games while scoring 5 of their 7 goals there.
Sindri now face a real chance of progreesing to the quarter-finals when they meet a troubled Fylkir side whos defence has been bad. However, if Sindri are to make use of that they need to put more power into their attack since their overall scoring is quite low comparing to the teams above them in the league.
Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir made their way into the final 16 by beating a bottom placed League 1 team 0-2 away where they scored both goals in the last ten minutes. Fylkir‘s start in the Top league has been terrible and they haven‘t produced a single win in the first seven rounds. Managing only two draws they sit in 11th place with only 2 points and a scoreline of 6:14 which is the second fewest goals scored.
Losing their last three games 2-8 in total has put their manager under a lot of pressure. On top of that there seems to be a lot of trouble inside the club who, for example, has been critisised for having the players pay part of the flight travelling cost in the Cup themselves.
Another example of the team problems is the rotation of the group before each game but the manager has made around 2-4 changes to his team before each game which goes to show how difficult it seems for him to get the correct setup. He even put his main striker and the highest goalscorer in the league history, Tryggvi Gudmundsson, on the bench in last round where they lost 0-1 at home against Breidablik Kopavogur.
With the travel at hand, their trouble in front of goal and the fact that their hosts don‘t concede often at home Fylkir might have a difficult time getting a win even though they play two leagues up. If they fail to win, chances are their manager will have played their last game with them.
Head to head
The two have never met before.
Betting verdict
First of all this is a Cup game between teams who play two leagues apart, keep that in mind. However, this is not a clear cut win for the Top league team in my opinion. While the hosts have made a decent start in their league the visitors are in serious trouble in their league and not just on the pitch it seems.
Because of the league difference the price for the away win is rubbish at around 1.4. I would much rather take the home team to hold the +2 goals handicap, that is to say not to lose by more than a one goal, at around 1.7. However, since I have been a bit careful in my picks lately and this is a Cup game with the potential of an upset I‘m going a little higher this time and that‘s the game being a draw at halftime.
My argument is that with the home team conceding just one goal at home in the league and Fylkir‘s overall problems and the home team will probably keep very tight in the back I don‘t think there will be many goals here, and if they come they will come late.
Also, if you look at the stats you see that Fylkir have been drawing at halftime in 4 of their 7 league games and in their Cup game in the round of 32. Sindri have also been drawing at halftime in 3 of their 6 league games so you have a pretty high halftime draw ratio there, meaning that the price of 2.85 for the game being drawn at halftime is worth a try in my opinion.
The Pick :
Sindri 1-1 Fylkir Reykjavik
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take the halftime result to be a draw @ 2.85
