Italian Serie A
2024-09-15 - Monza vs Inter Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 4
Stadio Brianteo, Monza, Italy (16,917)
Sunday, 15th September 2024, 20:45 CET
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Monza Team News
After playing two boring low-scoring games, Monza exploded with a 2-2 in Florenze, but these two goals were scored on a 0.33 xG total in the game for Monza, indicating that this has everything to do with Fiorentina's defending. Monza is still a low-scoring team.
A reminder - Monza lost their coach Palladino that brought them so much joy last season and a mid-table finish, and he was joined by the best offensive midfielder Colpani. Both went to Fiorentina.
So now Monza is left without a tactical mastermind and a creative midfielder, so we can safely expect them to be a relegation candidate that will find it very difficult to perform against any favourite. Even in the last season, a successful one, they have shown a remarkable ability to always lose to a favourite.
Inter Milan Team News
The most important thing about this game is that Inter has a Champions League game in Manchester against City on Wednesday, and has probably spent their recent training sessions preparing for that game, not this one. This one's just a chore.
Inter is topping Serie A but is closely followed by Juventus at 7 points, and will likely lose the position by the time of kick off of this game, as Juventus plays on Friday. This would mean that Inter has some catching up to do.
Probable Lineups
Monza (3-4-2-1): Turati - Izzo, Pablo Mari, A.Carboni - P.Pereira, Bondo, Pessina, Kyriakopoulos - Maldini, Dany Mota - Djuric. Coach Nesta.
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Pavard, De Vrij, Carlos Augusto - Dumfries, Frattesi, Calhanoglu, Barella, Dimarco - Thuram, Taremi. Coach S.Inzaghi.
Lautaro Martinez is announced on the bench, and if this will truly happen, then you can expect Inter to be toothless for a long time and to probably have problems scoring here until he comes on. Mkhitaryan might also be rested. Obviously, Inzaghi is thinking about the Manchester City game and wants to win three points here without expending too much of the key players' energy reserves.
The Betting Market
Inter is a 1.43 favourite, indicating that this is a foregone conclusion. It probably is, the scoreline was 1-5 last season in Monza and 2-0 in Milano. The season before, Monza took a point at home with 2-2.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.66 while the BTTS market is split down the middle. We're leaning towards a No there. Also leaning towards the under. Inter will control the game but will find it difficult to create good chances without Lautaro.
The Betting Verdict
If you want a banker, pick Inter for 1.43 and be done with it. That's exactly what we'll do with the official pick, especially as Inter already had one poor result and doesn't need another one this early in the season. Motivation will be sky high even despite having one eye on the Champions League debut in Manchester on Wednesday. This match is a job to do and Inter will see it through.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Monza 0-1 Inter Milan
