Italian Serie A
2024-09-22 - Inter Milan vs AC Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 5
Giuseppe Meazza Stadium, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Sunday, 22nd September, 20:45 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Inter Team News
Inter hasn't been convincing this season, for now, and have already wasted four points. This is a far cry from the last season's winning machine, it's as if some magic ingredient is missing.
Though Inter will be perfectly happy with the 0-0 at Manchester City as that result showed their defence is good enough to keep even the best offensive teams at arm's length. Before that game, Inter failed to beat Monza and really didn't play very well, but that was in anticipation of Manchester City.
Inter won both Derby della Madonina matches against Milan last season, 5-1 as the official host before winning 2-1 this year in April. In last 10 meetings, Milan won only twice, and it's been six straight matches since.
It must be noted that Inter dismantled the only team that came with an offensive intent, which was Atalanta, and the final score was 4-0.
Milan Team News
Milan just lost 1-3 at home to Liverpool and must now face an opponent that they are unable to beat for a long time now. Milan's results took a turn for the worse this season and the team seems less reliable than before, which especially goes for defence.
They conceded two from Torino, Milan, Parma and Lazio, and conceded three from Liverpool. Only Venezia hasn't scored against this Milan side. That's awful and the new signing Pavlovic isn't helping with his wayward positioning.
Probable Lineups
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni - Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco - Thuram, Lautaro. Coach S.Inzaghi.
Milan (4-2-3-1): Maignan - Calabria, Tomori, Pavlovic, Hernandez - Fofana, Loftus-Cheek - Pulisic, Reijnders, Leao - Morata. Coach Paulo Fonseca.
Inter will field the strongest team, as expected, no rotations here. Milan will start Morata and not Abraham.
The Betting Market
Inter was a 1.65 favourite against Atalanta and the price is 1.69 now. Sounds about right, Inter is dominant in derbies and always brings their A game when facing top Italian opposition. It's a mismatch though, as no team in Italy can match how Inter is playing. Milan certainly hasn't shown they got what it takes - if they attack then Inter scores. If they defend, Inter scores. There's just no way to win.
Both Teams To Score: YES and Over 2.5 Goals are both priced at 1.66 but we got burned in that Atalanta game as Atalanta didn't score. So let's just leave it.
The Betting Verdict
The only thing that makes sense is to bet on Inter to win, as they usually do when they want to prove to everyone they're the best team in Italy. It's the small games they always seem to have a problem with.
Milan's defence will concede at least two, and this should be enough for Inter to get the win.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Inter Milan 2-0 AC Milan
