Italian Serie A
2024-09-28 - Udinese vs Inter Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 6
Stadio Friuli, Udine, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Italy (25,144)
Saturday, 28th September 2024, 15:00 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Udinese Team News
It's safe to say that Udinese's newly found offensive approach is paying off. Coach Kosta Runjaic is making his mark on this league as he turned one of the most boring teams in Serie A participate in, almost exclusively, over 2.5 goals matches. The only time when that didn't happen was in a visit to Bologna that ended 1-1.
Sometimes it works, sometimes it backfires. It backfired in Roma that had a new coach of their own as the hosts won 3-0, but that's the only defeat Udinese tasted this season.
Don't expect miracles from Udinese. But be aware that this is a side that can hurt anyone in this league on a good day.
Inter Team News
Inter didn't continue the steamroller approach from last season. It could be that the approach of not bringing any significant new players to this squad was a wrong one, as the team now looks stale. The main players are a year older, and their replacements aren't of the same quality and haven't even established themselves in the team yet. Davide Frattesi still can't carry the team, as talented as he is.
After the 4-0 at home against Atalanta, Inter is now in a three-match winless streak. They played 1-1 in Monza, then played 0-0 against Manchester City which was a success, and then came a shock - they lost the derby against Milan 1-2.
Inter is still the most serious scudetto candidate, but the season opening has been a bit shaky, to say the least.
Probable Lineups
Udinese (3-5-2): Okoye - kabasele, Bijol, Toure - Ehizibue, Karlstrom, Lovric, Ekkelenkamp, Zemura - Thauvin, Lucca. Coach Runjaic.
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Bisseck, Acerbi, Bastoni - Darmian, Frattesi, Calhanoglu, Zielinski, Dimarco - Thuram, Lautaro. Coach S.Inzaghi.
Bisseck, Acerbi and Bastoni will be in Inter's backline. That seems like the lowest-quality trio possible as Pavard and De Vrij will be on the bench. Barella and Mkhitaryan might also be given a rest.
The Betting Market
Inter is a firm favourite at 1.50, and that's with an enhanced price at Bet365. It doesn't seem right. Sure, we all know Inter is likely to win this one, but the price would be accurate if Udinese was still that toothless team and if Inter was on a roll. Neither thing is true.
Udinese is still a team of the same overall quality as before, but their offensive approach makes them more of a liability for our bets. They already won at home against Lazio, for example. Inter, on the other hand, has already spilled some points.
The bookmakers have set a cautious price of 1.72 for Over 2.5 Goals, and that looks like a solid bet. But there's something that looks even better, 1.90 on Both Teams To Score: YES. That price seems way off as this will be a shootout.
The Betting Verdict
You'll probably be surprised to hear that Udinese has scored against Inter in three consecutive home matches since 2022. The scores were 1-2, 3-1 and last season it was 1-2.
We expect more of the same here. So, even when Udinese was a defensive side, they'd step up and start playing offensively against Inter at some point, fighting fire with fire. That will happen here too, especially as everyone is aware Inter is showing signs of weakness.
Runjaic will attack and will make a mockery of the 1.90 price for BTTS.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Udinese 1-2 Inter
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Both Teams To Score: YES at 1.90 at Bet365
