NCAA Football
2024-12-07 - Georgia Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football Week 15- SEC Championship Game
Saturday 7th December 2024 - Scheduled 4pm
9pm (British Time)
Preview
A couple of weeks ago it was suggested that some of the top SEC teams that had already suffered multiple defeats would be better off missing out on the Championship Game. However, the Alabama Crimson Tide and their three losses have been slotted into a position where they look certain to take part in the Playoff and so the concern about falling out of the twelve team post-season is not going to be a factor in this one.
Instead the Texas Longhorns (11-1) and Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) can play for the SEC Championship knowing they will have a big achievement in being crowned Champions and will also earn a Bye through to the College Football Playoff Quarter Final.
The losing team will be involved in the First Round, but neither team will be thinking about losing in a rematch of a regular season game that was won on the road by the Georgia Bulldogs.
It was a game that saw too many errors from both Offensive units and the feeling is that the one that cleans up those mistakes the best will come out on top.
Georgia won their final regular season game against rivals Georgia Tech, but needed EIGHT Overtimes to do that and you do have to wonder what kind of impact that is going to have on their performance just several days later. It really is an unprecedented circumstance, even if winning means they will have a spring in their step, and the Bulldogs will be well aware that this is a much tougher test all around.
Carson Beck is in good form at Quarter Back, but he will have a lot to prove having thrown 3 Interceptions in the win over the Longhorns two months ago. He was well protected by his Offensive Line, which is going to be tested by the Longhorns pass rush, but Beck was inefficient having thrown the ball 41 times for the 175 passing yards produced.
The Quarter Back would love the Offensive Line to find a way to establish the run and leave him in third and manageable spots, but running against the Texas Defensive Line has been difficult all season. The Bulldogs did pretty well on the ground in the first game against Texas and they will be hoping they can replicate that and keep Carson Beck out of situations where he has to test this Secondary by holding onto the ball longer than usual.
The Bulldogs will feel they showed enough in the first game to have the confidence to take on the Longhorns again, especially if Carson Beck plays a cleaner game. They will look to run the ball and just keep things grinding out and making sure the Texas Offensive unit is left to cool off on the sidelines.
Running the ball is also going to be important for the Texas Longhorns, especially seeing the successes that the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets were able to have on the ground last week. In the game hosted by the Longhorns, the Offensive Line were not able to exploit the Bulldogs, but they may feel they are playing them a better time now and keeping Quinn Ewers in third and manageable is just as important for them as it is for Carson Beck and the Bulldogs.
For some of the issues the Bulldogs have had in controlling the run, the Secondary continues to play at a decent level and there has been an underwhelming passing game in Texas in recent games. Quinn Ewers is trying to be a little more careful with the ball, which is very important in these huge SEC games, and you have to believe that Texas will not want to give too much away if they can help it.
Instead the plan may be to have the team operating out of third and manageable and for the Quarter Back to get the ball out of his hands and to his playmakers as soon as possible.
Picking a winner is difficult, especially after the way the regular season ended for the Georgia Bulldogs and what kind of energy has been sapped. However, the win in the regular season gives them confidence and this could end up being a game where the teams are looking to avoid giving much away to the other.
The lean will be on the rushing attack and that could end up shortening the game, which has made the total line look a touch on the high side.
It is much lower than when the teams met in October and they combined for 45 points that day- you have to feel that the focus is to limit mistakes this time and both teams will want to pound the rock rather than looking for the Quarter Back to make quick strike throws down the field.
With the College Football Playoffs coming up pretty quickly, the focus could quickly turn to that if a team falls too far behind and then it will be about limiting injuries and not giving away plays that can be used to surprise opponents. The SEC Championship Game does look a good one on paper, but one that may not offer up as many points as this total would suggest.
Prediction
Look for the Defensive units to play at a strong level and for the two SEC powerhouses to use the run to shorten the game, which should help this Championship Game finish below the total line set.
The Pick :
Texas Longhorns 23-20 Georgia Bulldogs
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Under 50 Total Points at -105 with BetOnline
