NCAA Football
2024-12-07 - Penn State Nittany Lions at Oregon Ducks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football Week 15- Big Ten Championship Game
Saturday 7th December 2024 - Scheduled 8pm
1am (British Time)
Preview
The move from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten looked to be a big test for the Oregon Ducks (12-0), especially with the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and defending National Champions Michigan Wolverines involved. However, internally, the Ducks felt confident about playing with the teams in this Conference, one that is likely going to be sending four teams to the twelve team College Football Playoff.
The Ducks would love to move into the Playoff as the unbeaten Big Ten Champion, which would come with the Number 1 Seed and a Bye through to the Quarter Final.
They face the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) in Indianapolis in the Conference Championship Game, a surprise after the Ohio State Buckeyes were upset by the Michigan Wolverines in Week 14.
All credit to James Franklin and his Nittany Lions who have four straight games since losing to the Buckeyes and who are going to be playing in the College Football Playoff for the first time, even if they were to lose this Championship Game.
The Nittany Lions will not be thinking about losing with the players seeing the chance to perhaps steal the top Seed for themselves as the Big Ten Champion.
It is also a big 'prove it' moment for James Franklin who has a really poor record Coaching Penn State against top 10 Ranked teams. And make no mistake, this is going to be a huge challenge for the Nittany Lions Offensive unit that scored 13 points against the Ohio State Buckeyes and now take on an Oregon Defense that has played at a consistent, high level all season.
Running the ball against the Ducks Defensive Line has proven to be a tough task for most opponents they have faced this season and the Nittany Lions will know how important it is to try and establish the run. In the main it will be to make things easier for Drew Allar at Quarter Back and not have him behind the chains and then trying to allow Receivers to make their way down the field while trying to avoid a fierce Oregon pass rush.
Throwing against the Oregon Secondary would be challenging without the pressure, but it becomes all the tougher if in third and long and the Ducks knowing what to expect. Drew Allar has perhaps not been as strong at Quarter Back as Penn State may have hoped with just shy of 2700 passing yards and 18 Touchdown passes thrown, and so the key for the Nittany Lions is to not put him under the kind of pressure where he feels he needs to make the big plays to keep things moving.
At the same time, it will also be a big test for the Oregon Offensive unit when going up against the Penn State Defense that has been Ranked amongst the very best in College Football.
There is a similar challenge set for the Oregon Offensive Line, which has been very good at establishing the run but which will have rarely faced a Defensive Line like the one that the Nittany Lions bring onto the field. Winning at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball is going to be the key to the outcome of this Big Ten Championship Game.
Even if the Ducks are behind the chains, they may have a bit more belief in Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back compared with how the Nittany Lions feel about Drew Allar.
This is a very experienced Quarter Back and Gabriel has over 3200 passing yards with 24 Touchdown passes to his name and it does feel there are one or two holes that he could exploit with the talented playmakers around him. Once again, throwing out of third and long will be challenging considering the pass rush pressure that Penn State have generated and a ball-hawking Secondary that loves to pick off passes, but Gabriel's experience has been key for Oregon.
This does look like a good Big Ten Championship Game and the Conference is going to be sending some quality teams to the College Football Playoff with every chance that one goes all the way to become National Champions. Right now the most likely is the Oregon Ducks and they can wrap up an unbeaten season to become Big Ten Champions before moving into the Playoff with a bit more consistent play coming from the Quarter Back.
The Oregon Offensive and Defensive Line may have narrow advantages against their opposite number in this one and James Franklin's poor record against top opponents in College Football cannot be ignored. It may not be a really high-scoring game with the Defenses that are heading onto the field in Indianapolis, but the Ducks have the edge and may have enough to match the Buckeyes margin of victory against Penn State.
Prediction
Lay the points with the unbeaten Oregon Ducks, the current Number 1 Ranked team in College Football.
The Pick :
Oregon Ducks 20-13 Penn State Nittany Lions
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Oregon Ducks - 3.5 Points at -104 with Bookmaker.eu
