NCAA Football
2024-12-21 - SMU Mustangs at Penn State Nittany Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football PlayOff First Round
Saturday 21st December 2024 - Scheduled 12pm
5pm (British Time)
Preview
The new College Football Playoff format means there is unfamiliar mid-December home games to be played.
It looks like being a cold day at Beaver Stadium, which could impact the teams, but the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) and SMU Mustangs (11-2) have plenty of motivation as they look to move through to the Quarter Final Round.
In the days of the four team Playoff, neither of these teams would have expected to be involved having failed to win a Conference Championship and with two defeats on the board, but the twelve team Playoff offers another opportunity for the teams.
The Penn State Nittany Lions have been beaten by fellow Playoff teams Oregon and Ohio State in the Big Ten this season, but those are quality defeats and home advantage looks to be important for them. Having a deep impact in the Playoff is possible with the winner heading into a Quarter Final with the Boise State Broncos, but the Nittany Lions will not want to overlook the SMU Mustangs.
They finished without the Conference Championship after losing to the Clemson Tigers, but the Playoff Committee gave the Mustangs deserved respect as they edged out the Alabama Crimson Tide for a spot in the bracket. Motivation will be easy for the players when they note they are set as a pretty big underdog for this First Round game and the Mustangs may have the Offensive power to at least keep this one competitive.
Being perfectly honest, the Mustangs do still have something to prove having competed in arguably the weakest of the four Power Conferences. There are not a lot of standout wins and the loss to Clemson will have stung as they prepare to face a tough Penn State Defensive Line.
Both teams will be challenged at the Line of Scrimmage by the Defensive Lines that the other will have on the field and that will mean the pressure is on the Quarter Backs that take to the field.
Kevin Jennings has had a strong season for the Mustangs and he has been well protected by the Offensive Line, which will offer him time to make throws into the Secondary. There are not a lot of holes to exploit, but Jennings has to be encouraged by what Oregon were able to do against Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
After announcing his retrun to Penn State for 2025, Drew Allar might just have a bit more support from his Offensive Line as they look to push Penn State into third and manageable spots. The Quarter Back has enjoyed a nice season and establishing the run will be key to just easing the SMU pass rush and give Allar the chance to enjoy another strong day in a big spot.
Interceptions were costly in the defeat against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, but Drew Allar also had over 200 passing yards with three Touchdown passes and that is encouraging for the Nittany Lions. The Quarter Back will have studied the tape from the ACC Championship Game and the successes Cade Klubnik had against the SMU Secondary and it may just see this game lean in favour of Penn State.
The spread is going to be a tough one to overcome, but being at home might just see the Nittany Lions have the edge in this First Round game. The Mustangs should be able to keep things competitive, but the feeling is that Penn State will have the stronger Defensive unit on the field and ultimately they can make a play or two to just push clear in the Fourth Quarter and narrowly overcome this mark.
Prediction
Lay the points with the home favourite.
The Pick :
Penn State 31-20 SMU Mustangs
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Penn State Nittany Lions - 8.5 Points at -110 with Bovada
