NCAA Football
2025-01-09 - Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Penn State Nittany Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football PlayOff Semi Final
Thursday 9th January 2025 - Scheduled 7:30pm
12:30am (British Time)
Preview
It is best to not read too much into the first edition of the twelve team College Football Playoff, but it has been noted that the four First Round winners all came through their Quarter Final games to earn places in the final four.
Perhaps in the future the four teams earning the Bye will have guaranteed home field advantage to make up for the time spent away from competitive action, but that is a matter for another day.
Teams like the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) could not, and should not, care less with the chance of winning a National Championship now coming over the horizon.
Both schools have to be excited about the opportunity in front of them as Penn State look for a first National Championship since 1986 and Notre Dame the first since 1988. Out of the two, the Fighting Irish have a lot more recent experience of playing in the College Football Playoff, but that is not going to count for a lot in this Semi Final.
The Fighting Irish beat the Indiana Hoosiers out of the Big Ten before upsetting the SEC Champions Georgia Bulldogs, but will note that there is room for improvement. Notre Dame were not very comfortable Offensively in the win over the Bulldogs and were perhaps fortunate that Georgia were without starting Quarter Back Carson Beck, who might have helped that Quarter Final become a lot more competitive than it was at the end.
Next up is the Penn State Nittany Lions who beat the SMU Mustangs and then covered as a big favourite in the victory over the Boise State Broncos. Head Coach James Franklin will have something to build upon thanks to this Semi Final run, but he will also be very aware that Penn State could not have asked for a better portion of the Bracket and this is a huge step up for the Nittany Lions, who were beaten by Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game in early December.
Much like Notre Dame, Penn State will be very pleased with the efforts of the Defensive unit in their two Playoff wins, but may feel there is still more to come from Quarter Back Drew Allar and the rest of the Offense.
Unsuprisingly the Line of Scrimmage is going to play a huge factor in this game on both sides of the ball.
Running the ball against this Fighting Irish Defensive Line has been challenging for teams all season and they were able to shut down the Bulldogs in the Quarter Final. Doing the same against the Nittany Lions will be tougher considering the experience of the Quarter Back, which was missing against Georgia and allowed Notre Dame to dare the SEC Champions to beat them through the air.
Someone like Drew Allar is capable of making plays against this Secondary, although running the ball is also important to establish the balance and just offer Penn State's Offensive Line a little less time to keep the pass rush out of the backfield. The long Allar has to hold the ball to allow routes to develop down the field, the better for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who will feel any under pressure Quarter Back could be picked off by the Defensive Backs.
Extra possessions could be crucial in a Semi Final like this one and avoiding turnovers is going to be important for Drew Allar and Fighting Irish Quarter Back Riley Leonard.
Good news for the Fighting Irish is that Jerimiyah Love looks like he will be ready to go after some early doubts about the big time Running Back. There is little doubt that Love and Riley Leonard will be needed to help Notre Dame try and establish the run against a very good Penn State Defensive Line, one that is expected to have standout Abdul Carter available to play.
Ashton Jeanty was able to pick up 104 yards on the ground against Penn State in the Quarter Final, but it took thirty carries to do that and that just underlines how good the Nittany Lions have been up front.
Having a dual-threat Quarter Back may aid Notre Dame, but they are going to have to be patient and try and wear down the Nittany Lions through the course of the Semi Final. It may also be a situation where Riley Leonard has to try and exploit the one or two holes that have existed in the Penn State Secondary and see if the pass can help open the running lanes.
Riley Leonard did not have a good game against the Georgia Bulldogs so may feel he has something to prove with his arm having thrown for just 90 yards in the Quarter Final win. He did avoid turnovers though and it is going to be a game that may end up being a field position battle where the team that plays the cleaner game is able to win.
The layers are finding it tough to separate Penn State and Notre Dame and the same can be said here.
Instead, it may just be the best option to focus on the Defensive units and expect them to come out on top.
College Football rules can make backing the under a bit more difficult- Overtime rules can see the points really rack up, and this is a game that is likely going to be close enough to potentially need an extra bit of time to find a way to separate them.
However, you have to believe both teams are going to grind this one out at times and that could see the clock run quicker than in other games. Both will look to pound the rock and open up the pass, but the Quarter Backs may not be tasked with trying to do too much when they step back to throw the ball in order to avoid turnovers.
Both the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish have shown how good their Defensive units can be this season and a tight, competitive Semi Final is expected.
Prediction
Look for the two teams to dominate Defensively and keep this Semi Final below the total line set.
The Pick :
Penn State 17-20 Notre Dame
