World Cup
2008-09-10 - Latvia vs Greece
A Sports Betting Pick by Dimitris
FIFA World Cup 2010 European Qualifiers
Wednesday 10th September - KO 19:15
LATVIA
An away victory at Moldova was not widely expected but the Latvian side took an early advantage and managed to withstand the Moldovan counter-attack.
Latvia has been known to be a very hard opponent to beat at home and this is what Greece will have to try to do this evening.
Unfortunately Greek media are not particularly rich regarding information on the abscences of the Latvian team, the names that they present as possible starting 11 don't say anything to me, except for Verpakovskis.
Previous results in Riga show that no team have had an easy night and all away victories were close. Coach Aleksandrs Stakovs is know to play attacking football and it is quite a mystery if he will adopt this tactics today or he will prefer a more patient approach.
GREECE
Greece had an easy night against Luxembourg winning 3-0 but any other outcome from this game would have been a huge surprise.
Nevertheless Greece were not particularly shiny, especially in the first 30 minutes, but prevailed due to sheer difference of class.
Most people here agree that with a performance similar to that first 30 minutes against Luxembourg, things will get very tough in Latvia.
Striker Gekas had a thigh problem, which although is more or less behind im leaves him doubtful for tonight. Other than that coach Rehagel has a full house and will be able to field his best 11 men.
MATCH ANALYSIS
This is one of the most difficult matches to call for this round.
Greece in terms of quality are better than Latvia, but most Latvian players compete in their national league and are deep in their season, thus in better form.
I strongly believe this is going to be a manager's game, based solely on tactics. As mentioned before Starkovs is known to adopt an attacking style in home, but this is not a wise choice against Greece, a team that won an entire Euro playing counter-attacks.
The most probable course of the game, to my eyes, is patience from both sides until they find the right time to strike. I think both teams can settle with the draw, as this will leave them both top of the group. The team that scores first will have the first word to win this match, and i do believe that if a goal comes it will be in the late part of the second half.
VERDICT
I believe that under 2.5 goals, that is offered at 1.7 (www.bet365.com) is more than generous, and is my rock solid pick for this match, given that both teams will probably adopt the "patience" tactics and if they get ahead they will look to secure their rear.
In that view, 2.1 for HT draw is also a very good pick.
If pressed to pick a final result I would go for the draw, and since Gooner's spreadsheet agrees with that, maybe it is a good option at around 3.3, but a late (and possibly lucky) goal can ruin this.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Under 2.5 @ 1.70 is my first choice betA HT draw @2.10 is also a good option.
