German Bundesliga
2009-05-12 - FC Koln vs Hertha Berlin
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Rhein-Energie-Stadion
Tuesday, 12th May 2009 – kickoff 20:00
Only three rounds left and the Bundesliga season finish is the most entertaining in Europe with 5 teams that could lift the trophy.
FC Koln
Although Koln is one of the lower sides in the Bundesliga, this club has an average of 41,900 spectators per game which makes it tough place to visit no matter what club goes there.
FC Koln does not have much to play for since they are 8 points above the relegation zone, but still they are a decent home side with four wins, four draws and seven losses and have kept a clean sheet four times.
Advantage for the team is that they will play without pressure to win but will try hard enough not to let down their loyal fans. I expect open formation with two attackers up-front that will try to back down Hertha title hopes.
The discipline in the team is not very high and the team plays hard football. Coach Christoph Daum can not count on services of Mohamad (Red card) Novakovic (5th booking) and Pezzoni (5th booking). McKenna and Boateng look likely to start the game against Hertha, and they were important part of the team`s previous matches.
Possible line-up :
Hertha Berlin
Hertha won very important home game against Bochum on Saturday which made them trail by only one point behind the leaders Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich who both have 60 points.
Hertha expects a massive game this weekend at home ground against Schalke 04 so in this match a loss is a no option by any means.
The confidence and morale of the team is very high and another boost is the return of inspirational defender and captain of the team Arne Friedrich who has recovered after undergoing knee surgery, and is expected to make his 200th Bundesliga appearance on Tuesday.
Max Nicu has been ruled out of this match due to an infected ankle joint. There is a small doubt over the participation of Hertha striker Marko Pantelic. The Serbian striker sustained a thigh strain against Bochum, but still he is expected to start the game.
It will be interesting to see how the things will develop in this match regarding the defender Joe Simunic and goalkeeper Jaroslav Drobny who both have four bookings, so a further booking would see them miss the home game against Schalke.
Possible line-ups :
Mondragon
Brecko, Geromel, McKenna, Wome
Matip, Boateng, Vucicevic,
Petit,
Ehret, Ishiaku
Hertha Berlin :
Drobny
von Bergen, A. Friedrich, Simunic, M. Stein
Dardai, Kacar, Ebert,
Cicero, Raffael, Pantelic
Analysis :
Hertha Coach Lucien Favre has urged the team to stay focused to the end of the championship, and i think that this team has the necessary experience and players to finish the season strong.
The team has never been so close to win the Bundesliga as they are now,and if they win this match- next weekend match against Schalke in Berlin will be madness.(the stadium capacity is already sold out).
As the teams met in Berlin earlier in the season, goals by Gojko Kacar and Pantelic gave Hertha a 2-1 victory and I think this reverse fixture will end up the same.
The whole team is aware that if they drop points that would end championship dream so they have to stand up to the game and win this one.
Koln will play without stress and I am sure that loss would not hurt them bad although they will fight not to lose.
The Betting verdict :
Having in mind the league position of both teams, the form of the teams and the importance of the match, I don`t know why Hertha are priced that big. Those odds of about 1.80 for away win are very good.
Probably the bookmakers are considering Hertha “shaky” and inconsistent away form, but i still think that they will win this one, so that is what i am going for.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
FC Koln 1-2 Hertha Berlin
