MLB Baseball
2012-04-24 - Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: Major League Baseball
Tuesday 24 April 2012 - First Pitch 10:05pm ET
3:05am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Washington Nationals (12-4) were expected to have a good season as many thought they had put together a strong pitching staff, but even all the optimists must be a little surprised with how well they have played. They begin a new series out West as they face the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of a three game series.
The Nationals are showing the mettle early in the season as they have improved to 6-2 in games decided by one run after beating the Miami Marlins 3-2 on Saturday as they finished off their ten game homestand with a 8-2 record.
A lot of the success Washington have earned has come through their pitching staff that have a combined 2.34 ERA in the early going of the 2012 season. Today they will send Gio Gonzalez to the mound after he picked up his first win as a National last time out.
Gonzalez has a 2.04 ERA this season and should be full of confidence after pitching 14 straight scoreless innings. This will be Gonzalez' first start against the San Diego Padres, but they won't be looking forward to it as they are 1-6 in their last 7 against left handed pitchers, as well as holding a 0.214 batting average which is the worst in the National League.
However, San Diego have won their last two games while scoring 11 runs combined in those games against the Philadelphia Phillies. They had been averaging just 2 runs per game in their previous 4 games before splitting the series with Philadelphia with their latest two wins.
Clayton Richard will be given the ball for the Padres as he looks to improve his 1-1 record and his 5.89 ERA. Richard didn't give up a run in his first start of the season over 7 innings, but he has allowed 12 runs in his last two starts.
The pitcher gave up 8 runs to the Colorado Rockies in his last outing in just under 6 innings pitched. He is 1-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 5 career starts against the Nationals.
Head to Head
Washington won the season series between the teams in 2011 by 4 games to 3.
The Nationals won 3 of 4 games played here.
Prediction
I am going to take the riskier option of picking the Washington Nationals to win this one on the run line as I think the away teams pitching staff are going to enjoy playing at Petco Park.
I think the ballpark means the Nationals have the big edge on the mound as far as I am concerned. The problem here will be whether or not Washington can score enough runs to cover the run line, and I think they will be able to if Clayton Richard cannot find the command he had in his first start of the season.
Richard is giving up too many opportunities and that could be enough for Washington- I think if they can put up 4 or 5 runs, they should be good enough to grab the win with a bit to spare, especially if Gio Gonzalez continues his streak of scoreless innings.
At 2.45, it looks reasonably priced to take the Nationals on the run line.
The Pick :
San Diego Padres 1-4 Washington Nationals
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Washington Nationals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.45
